Month: November 2019

Race 3 at Tampa Bay, Wed., Nov. 27

There was a textbook handicapping race in the 3rd at Tampa Bay today, a $13K maiden race for two-year olds at 1M on the turf. #8 Maspero was the second favorite according to the odds at 3-1; however, the program had him valued much higher than that with a total winning probability of 60.53%. The horse had crushing numbers across all speed categories with winning estimates of 26.5% in SPD, 70.3% in E1, 59.7% in E2, 49.8% in LP and 84.3% in COMP. In the race, Maspero came from four lengths behind with a six mide move around the far turn before catching the leader, #5 Wickididit, halfway down the stretch. Maspero paid $8.40 for the win. The race is evidence again of how it pays in the long-run to wait for the right setups of races in terms of odds. Maspero was a horse that one could be confident in because of his strong stats, and he won as expected at a price two times his fair value.

Race 5 at Aqueduct and the Red Smith Stakes, Sat., Nov. 23

The Handicap Wizard saw good results today at Aqueduct in the 5th with #2 Celebration and in the lone graded stakes race in the 9th in the Red Smith Stakes with Sandler’s Joy. In the $25K claiming race in the 5th at 6f, the turf program had Celebration as its second selection with a total winning probability of around 20% versus final odds of 8-1. Despite an 11% Winning Percentage, Celebration had strength on the speed side with winning estimates in E1, E2 and LP of 44.9%, 43.7% and 28.2% as well as a high COMP estimate of 55%. The data was underpinned by a 4% CV ratio, denoting low risk for the horse. In the race, Celebration led from start to finish, paying $18.00 for the win.

 

In the 9th in the Red Smith Stakes, a $200K turf race at 1 3/8 mi. for three-year olds and up, the Handicap Wizard assigned #7 Sadler’s Joy a 32.7% winning probability versus final odds of 6-5. The horse made its move around the far turn six-wide before kicking it into high gear down the stretch, while Red King followed his lead and finished second. Sadler’s Joy was the classiest horse in the race with nearly a 36% Winning Percentage in this G2 field. Remember you can see the high resolution images by clicking the link on the bottom right once you click on the thumbnail image.

 

 

 

 

Breeders’ Cup Recap

At the Breeders Cup’ at Santa Anita on Nov. 1st and 2nd, the program had winners with its top selections in the following races: the $4 mil. Breeders’ Cup Turf with Bricks and Mortar at 3-2, the $2 mil. Breeders’ Cup Distaff with Blue Prize at 9-1, the $1 mil. Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile with Spun to Run at 9-1, the $1 mil. Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint with Four Wheeled Drive at 3-2, and the $1 mil. Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Sprint with Covfefe at 3-2. In the $1 mil. Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf on Friday, the program’s top selection of Billy Batts took place at odds of 50-1. The program’s 2nd selection in Vino Rosso won the $6 mil. Breeders’ Cup Classic at 9-2, who was priced near his total winning probability of 17%.

Breeders’ Cup Distaff, Sat., Nov. 2

The Handicap Wizard had another win with its top selection in the 10th race, the $2 mil. Breeders’ Cup Distaff, run at 1 1/8 mi. on the dirt for fillies and mares. The program had #11 Blue Prize at 9-1 as its top pick with a total winning probability of 23.17%. The horse had the highest SPD and LP winning estimates of 51.1% and 36.6%. In the race, Blue Price took control down the stretch, holding off the favorite, #4 Midnight Bisou at 1-1, who finished second. Blue Prize paid $19.80 for the win.