There was a textbook handicapping race in the 3rd at Tampa Bay today, a $13K maiden race for two-year olds at 1M on the turf. #8 Maspero was the second favorite according to the odds at 3-1; however, the program had him valued much higher than that with a total winning probability of 60.53%. The horse had crushing numbers across all speed categories with winning estimates of 26.5% in SPD, 70.3% in E1, 59.7% in E2, 49.8% in LP and 84.3% in COMP. In the race, Maspero came from four lengths behind with a six mide move around the far turn before catching the leader, #5 Wickididit, halfway down the stretch. Maspero paid $8.40 for the win. The race is evidence again of how it pays in the long-run to wait for the right setups of races in terms of odds. Maspero was a horse that one could be confident in because of his strong stats, and he won as expected at a price two times his fair value.
Pro-Handicap Analytics 