Month: November 2019

Another race today that handicappers will have their sights on is race 11, the $4 million Longines Breeders’ Cup Turf for three-year olds at 1 ½ miles. The field features Bricks and Mortar, winner of his last six at mostly the G1 level, who has been idle since the Arlington Million in mid August. There is also the Belmont Turf Classic winner, Arklow, and Man of War winner, Channel Maker, among others. A wildcard in this race is Old Persian, who won the Northern Dancer at Woodbine in September. The Handicap Wizard Turf Program has Bricks and Mortar as its top selection with a 19% winning probability versus 9-5 on the M/L. However, there is scant data for Old Persian, Anthony Van Dyck and Mount Everest because they are European or Dubai horses. Both Old Persian and Anthony Van Dyck have had G1 wins, with Old Persian coming into the race in better form. The big question is whether Arklow can repeat his career best 114 final speed figure at the Belmont Turf Classic in early October. This seems unlikely in view of Arlow’s erratic win record, underscored by a Coefficient of Variance for his final speed figures of 9%. On a speed basis, Arklow with a 19.6% SPD estimate has value versus his 12-1 price on the M/L. Statistically, Acclimate is interesting as a long-shot at 20-1 on the M/L in view of his strong E1 and E2 estimates of 80.3% and 57.5% and total win probability of 15.21%. He has won and placed in his last two G2 races at Del Mar and Santa Anita. In total, Bricks and Mortar appears vulnerable in terms of speed to the field with a SPD estimate of only 2.2%, but 39.9% in the LP category. Channel Cat at 15-1, Channel Maker at 10-1 and Arklow at 12-1 all have higher SPD estimates compared to Bricks and Mortar, with Channel Maker having the highest at 36.6%. If Acclimate’s COMP estimate is not accurate because of high variances, then Bandua may be the sleeper in this race at 20-1 with the second highest COMP estimate of 14% compared to Bricks and Mortar 9%. The top selections according to the program are Bricks and Mortar, Channel Maker and Acclimate. Old Persian’s winning percentage and total winning probabilities are understated because of a lack of data for his foreign races. Considering those races, he’s closer to Channel Maker and Acclimate in terms of strength, making him a place or show threat.

An even better result for the program was in the 6th race at Santa Anita, the $1 million Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf at 1 mi. Despite odds of 55-1 and 67-1, #8 Billy Batts and #9 Gear Jockey were the two strongest horses according to the COMP estimate, with winning probabilities by that measure of 26.0% and 24.0% respectively. While Billy Batts was the top selection overall with a 15.2% total winning probability in this wide-open juvenile turf race, it turned out that Billy Batts and Gear Jockey had incredible value according to the COMP measure, which had their fair value around 3-1 each. In the race, Billy Batts led down the stretch, only to be edged at the wire by the winner, #2 Structor at 5-1. Gear Jockey surged late to take 3rd. The market was discounting their relative low winning percentages, when speed prevailed in this race.

There was a good result in race 5 at Santa Anita today, the $1 million Juvenile Turf Sprint. The Handicap Wizard Turf Program favored #9 Four Wheeled Drive at 3-2 with a 36.1% total winning probability, while it had #1 Chimney Rock at 12-1 with a 16.18% winning probability as a close third selection. In the race, Four Wheeled Drive went wire to wire, holding off a late challenge by Chimney Rock to secure the win. The win paid $5.00, while the place with Chimney Rock paid $8.20. The $2 exacta paid $46.20.

On Saturday is the Breeders Cup Classic at San Anita, run at 1 ¼ mi. on the dirt for three-year olds and up. The race features Whitney Stakes winner, McKinzie, from the Baffert Barn, Travers winner, Code of Honor, Jockey Club Gold Cup Winner, Vino Rosso, who defeated Code of Honor in that race, and winner of the Awesome Again Stakes and runner-up in the Pacific Classic, Mongolian Groom, among other notable horses. With no horse being assigned higher than a 20% winning probability according to the program, this race looks to be a fairly even contest with the above horses having the most speed according to SPD. The leader is Code of Honor with a 34.8% winning probability according to SPD, followed by Mongolian Groom at 21.4%, who has the highest risk among the top-tier horses with a 9% Coefficient of Variance ratio. Surprisingly, McKinzie rates 4^th by SPD  at 10.3%, but this is due to the horse having low risk in the field with a Coefficient of Variance ratio of only 4%. According to the COMP probability, which is the simulation of the component speed figures, E1, E2 and LP, added together, McKinzie stacks up best with a 34.5% winning probability, putting the horse closer to its M/L price of 3-1. McKinzie has the second highest winning percentage at 15% behind Seeking the Soul at 19%. In total, McKenzie’s data reveals speed strength across the speed components and in simulation, despite having a lower SPD estimate. Plus, McKinzie is on its home turf, whereas both Code of Honor and Vinno Rosso are being shipped in from the East. Therefore, I would favor McKinzie in this race followed by Code of Honor over Vino Rosso, because of Code of Honor’s recent top form, though his final workout of 53 seconds for 4f on October 27 is a bit concerning. It’s unlikely that the Breeders Cup Classic will be much of a betting race, as the favorites will certainly be bid down in odds below their fair values. They are already below their fair values according to the M/L. The chance of an upset in this race is minimal, considering the high quality of the field, with almost all the horses having low Coefficient of Variance ratios. Only Seeking the Soul is at a big discount, owing to the horse having fallen drastically out of form in his last two races. Seeking the Soul’s one notable win was in the G2 Stephen Foster Handicap. Unfortunately for that horse, the site of the Breeder’s Cup Classic at Santa Anita is a long way from Churchill Downs, where the Stephen Foster took place. As for Preakness winner, War of Will, he simply is not in the same class as these other horses in view of his minimal relative speed and 8% winning percentage, which, at best, would put his fair value around 11-1. The selections are McKinzie, Code of Honor, Vino Rosso and Mongolian Groom.