Month: December 2019

The Handicap Wizard Turf Program had a good result yesterday in race 10 at Gulfstream, the $75K Tropical Park Derby, run at 1 1/6 mi. on the turf for three-year olds. The program’s second selection (by less than one percentage point), #13 Halladay, with a 16.36% winning probability won at 7-2, while it had the top three finishes in its top three selections. The race largely mirrored the results in the final speed (SPD) category, where it went Temple (32.9%), Halladay (26.9%) and Faraway Kitten (13.5%) fourth. Faraway Kitten’s Winning Percentage at 12.8% pushed it into the top three according to Total Winning Probability. In the race, Halladay broke well from the gate from the far outside post and settled in second behind #9 Notorious Nick going around the first turn. Halladay then charged past Notorious Nick on the back stretch and maintained the lead around the far turn and into the final stretch. #3 Faraway Kitten came off the rail to make a three-wide bid, but Halladay held on doggedly on the inside. #6 Temple came up late down the center to take third in the tri-fecta. Halladay paid $8.60 for the win. The $1 exacta paid $44.10, while the $0.50 tri-fecta paid $118.80.

Video Replay Link

https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/race/usa/gp/2019/12/28/9/tropical-park-derby-bt

In a surprise upset in the $100K G3 Harlan’s Holiday Stakes at Gulfstream in race 10, run at 1 1/16 mi. on the dirt for three-year olds and up, #5 War Story at 12-1 surged late to overtake the heavy favorite, #6 Bodexpress at 1-1, down the stretch to get the win. War Story was the top selection of the program with a total winning probability of 24.43%, underpinned by the highest final speed estimate in the field at 37.7% and the highest winning percentage, adjusted for stakes, at 26.5%.  War Story paid $27.20 for the win. In total, the Handicap Wizard had winners in three out of five graded stakes races with its top selections at Gulfstream today, with this third win coming after Lady Island (3-1) in the 6th and Mitchell Road (3-5) in the 7th.

In the first graded stakes race at Gulfstream today, the $100K Sugar Swirl Stakes, run at 6f on the dirt for three-year old fillies and mares, the Handicap Wizard had the winner with its top selection of #4 Lady Island, who beat the live-odds favorite, #3 Bit of Both, at 9-5. Bolstered by a winning final speed estimate of 45.8%, Lady Island had a total winning probability of 24.61%, which was exactly how the horse went off at 3-1. In the race, the horse broke well from the gate and went wire-to-wire in a no contest. Lady Island paid $8.60 for the win.

After having winners in two of the previous three graded stakes races at Aqueduct, the Handicap Wizard did it again in the $250K Demoiselle Stakes in the 8th, run at 1 1/8 mi. on the dirt for two-year olds. Assigned a total winning probability of 25.42%, the program’s top selection, #12 Lake Avenue at 4-1, broke well out of the gate from the outside post to take the lead coming out of the first turn. She held on to beat the two favorites in the race, #5 Alandra and #2 Maedean, both at 5-2, winning by four lengths. Lake Avenue paid $10.80 for the win.

In race 4 at Gulfstream, the $110K Glass Slipper stakes, run at 1 mi. on the dirt for filies and mares, you would have done well by keying on SPD or the COMP metrics with #5 Cuddle Kitten at 8-5 and #2 Liza Star at 5-1, who ranked #1 and #2 in those categories. In the race, the horses broke well from the gate and ran together until around the turn, before Liza Star took the lead down the stretch and never looked back. Liza Star paid $12.40 for the win.