Day: December 7, 2019

After having winners in two of the previous three graded stakes races at Aqueduct, the Handicap Wizard did it again in the $250K Demoiselle Stakes in the 8th, run at 1 1/8 mi. on the dirt for two-year olds. Assigned a total winning probability of 25.42%, the program’s top selection, #12 Lake Avenue at 4-1, broke well out of the gate from the outside post to take the lead coming out of the first turn. She held on to beat the two favorites in the race, #5 Alandra and #2 Maedean, both at 5-2, winning by four lengths. Lake Avenue paid $10.80 for the win.

 

In race 4 at Gulfstream, the $110K Glass Slipper stakes, run at 1 mi. on the dirt for filies and mares, you would have done well by keying on SPD or the COMP metrics with #5 Cuddle Kitten at 8-5 and #2 Liza Star at 5-1, who ranked #1 and #2 in those categories. In the race, the horses broke well from the gate and ran together until around the turn, before Liza Star took the lead down the stretch and never looked back. Liza Star paid $12.40 for the win.

 

In the first graded stakes races at Aqueduct today, the $150K Winter Memories Stakes, run at 1 1/16 mi. on the turf for three-year olds fillies, the Handicap Wizard had the winner with its top selection in #1 Feel Glorious (GB) at 8-5. The program had assigned the horse a total winning probability of 32.22%, which is close to where the she went off. In the race, Feel Glorious trailed the field while saving ground in the one path until the far turn, when she began to make her move. The horse had a burst of speed down the stretch, thanks to a 41.5% LP estimate, to overtake #11 Sorrentino Lemon to win by two lengths. Feel Glorious paid $5.40 for the win.

 

Today we have the G1 Cigar Mile and Kentucky Derby prep race, the G3 Remsen, for two-year olds at Aqueduct. The Cigar Mile features Kentucky Derby winner before the DQ, Maximum Security, who since May won the Haskell Invitational and the Bold Ruler as well as Spun to Run, winner of his last two, including the Breeders Cup Dirt Mile in November. Here are the Handicap Wizard’s projections for both races. Clicking on the images and then the link on the bottom right will bring them up full-size.

Cigar Mile

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Remsen

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