Day: December 14, 2019

In a surprise upset in the $100K G3 Harlan’s Holiday Stakes at Gulfstream in race 10, run at 1 1/16 mi. on the dirt for three-year olds and up, #5 War Story at 12-1 surged late to overtake the heavy favorite, #6 Bodexpress at 1-1, down the stretch to get the win. War Story was the top selection of the program with a total winning probability of 24.43%, underpinned by the highest final speed estimate in the field at 37.7% and the highest winning percentage, adjusted for stakes, at 26.5%.  War Story paid $27.20 for the win. In total, the Handicap Wizard had winners in three out of five graded stakes races with its top selections at Gulfstream today, with this third win coming after Lady Island (3-1) in the 6th and Mitchell Road (3-5) in the 7th.

In the first graded stakes race at Gulfstream today, the $100K Sugar Swirl Stakes, run at 6f on the dirt for three-year old fillies and mares, the Handicap Wizard had the winner with its top selection of #4 Lady Island, who beat the live-odds favorite, #3 Bit of Both, at 9-5. Bolstered by a winning final speed estimate of 45.8%, Lady Island had a total winning probability of 24.61%, which was exactly how the horse went off at 3-1. In the race, the horse broke well from the gate and went wire-to-wire in a no contest. Lady Island paid $8.60 for the win.