Day: January 8, 2020

Another interesting race today was the 5th at Gulfstream, a $19K claiming race at 7f for four-year olds and up on the dirt. #6 Smoke and Gloat at 7-5 was the live odds and model favorite, but was an overlay according to his 35% winning probability. There was value in the second and third program selections in #4 Diamond Majesty and #5 Animal Trick  both at 15-1, who had winning probabilities of 23.72% and 18.75% (around 3-1 and 4-1 fair values). One could have taken the horses as combined win or place selections, considering that the odds were substantial for both. In the race, Smoke and Gloat broke well from the gate and led going down the backstretch. Animal Trick stalked Smoke and Gloat half a length back on the inside going around the far turn, while Diamond Majesty made progress to close the gap on the leaders to a length. Down the stretch there was a three-way duel between Smoke and Gloat, Animal Trick and #1 Dr. Harlan at 4-1, before Animal Trick dug in inside in the last sixteenth to beat Smoke and Gloat by a length. Animal Trick paid $33.40 for the win, while the $2 exacta paid $112.60.

There was a good result today for the Turf Program in race 5 at Tampa, a $25K claiming race for four-year olds at 1 mi. The Handicap Wizard had #3 Juan Pablo as its top selection with a total winning probability of 29.72%, which is close to where the horse went off at 3-1. Juan Pablo boasted the highest SPD in the field at 60.1% and a LP of 46.7%. In the race, #1 Lassiter at 30-1 led into and out of the first turn, thanks to early speed as reflected in his E1 and E2 estimates of 31.5% and 35.5%. Juan Pablo stalked on the inside about mid-pack down the back stretch, before starting his move around the far turn. Down the stretch, Juan Pablo found a path in the center and went on to win by two lengths. Juan Pablo paid $8.40 for the win. The program had the exacta and the tri-fecta among its top three selections with #6 Super Courage at 3-1 coming in second as the third selection and #1 Lassiter at 30-1 finishing third as the 2nd selection. The $0.50 tri-fecta paid $158.70.