By Another interesting race today was the 5th at Gulfstream, a $19K claiming race at 7f for four-year olds and up on the dirt. #6 Smoke and Gloat at 7-5 was the live odds and model favorite, but was an overlay according to his 35% winning probability. There was value in the second and third program selections in #4 Diamond Majesty and #5 Animal Trick both at 15-1, who had winning probabilities of 23.72% and 18.75% (around 3-1 and 4-1 fair values). One could have taken the horses as combined win or place selections, considering that the odds were substantial for both. In the race, Smoke and Gloat broke well from the gate and led going down the backstretch. Animal Trick stalked Smoke and Gloat half a length back on the inside going around the far turn, while Diamond Majesty made progress to close the gap on the leaders to a length. Down the stretch there was a three-way duel between Smoke and Gloat, Animal Trick and #1 Dr. Harlan at 4-1, before Animal Trick dug in inside in the last sixteenth to beat Smoke and Gloat by a length. Animal Trick paid $33.40 for the win, while the $2 exacta paid $112.60.
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