Day: January 10, 2020

Not every race, of course, is going to go according to the program’s top selections. When it doesn’t, there are often opportunities to hit on horses at big odds as was the case in race 7 at Gulfstream, a $12.5K claiming race at 6.5f on the dirt for four-year old fillies and mares. At 28-1, My Sebastiana did not garner much betting interest, but upon a closer look at her data, there were some good reasons to like the horse. First, despite having a low final speed estimate, the horse indicated good early speed in the E1 and E2 metrics  with values of 14.4% and 54.6%. This meant that the horse was likely to be competitive at the sprinting distance of 6.5f. With a Winning Percentage, adjusted for stakes, at nearly 10%, the horse was priced at a substantial discount to its 28-1 odds, with that metric putting the horse’s value more in the range of 9-1 or 10-1. Taking a flier on My Sebastiana paid off, as the horse won the race down the stretch. While this is an example of a race with high degree of handicapping difficulty, the Handicap Wizard made it possible to find a horse like this from the data. My Sebastiana paid $58.80 for the win.

The Handicap Wizard is tearing it up in South Florida today with another winner in race 6 at Tampa, an $8K claiming race at 5 1/2f on the dirt for four-year old fillies and mares. #1 Caseyoudidntknow at 2-1 was the model’s top selection by a wide margin at 36.73% winning probability, thanks to a 61.1% SPD and a 79.6% LP estimate. In the race, Caseyoudidntknow lagged behind the leaders until the final stretch, when she came on strong down the center to overtake #13 Mardi Gras Girl at 13-1 at the wire. The horse paid $6.60 for the win.

After having another winner with its top selection in the 3rd at Gulfstream with #4 Castagno at 5-2, the Handicap Wizard found value in the 5th race, a $12.5K maiden claiming race at 6f for three year old fillies on the dirt, in the second selection—#8 Two Cents Worth at 6-1. With a total winning probability of 34.14%, which was only slightly below that of the top selection, Two Cents Worth offered good value either to win or to place. In the race, the horse led coming out of the gate and went on to win by seven lengths in a no contest. Two Cents Worth paid $15.40 for the win, while the place paid $7.00.

Continuing the winning streak on Friday, the Handicap Wizard Grey program had another successful result in the 2nd race at Tampa, a $5K claiming race at 5 1/2f on the dirt for four-year olds and up. The model had #3 Moonwalker at 7-2 as it top selection with a total winning probability of 25.28%, making it a slight underlay. In the race, Moonwalker broke well from the gate and was among the leaders heading down the back stretch along with the live odds favorite, #3 Arathorn at 8-5. Moonwalker then put it into high gear going around the far turn and never looked back, winning by two lengths in a fairly easy contest. The horse paid $9.60 for the win.

The Handicap Wizard Turf program got off to a good start at Gulfstream today in the 1st, a $25K maiden claiming race at 5f for fillies and mares four-years old an up. In a field of twelve, the program had #8 Lady Noy as its top selection with a 29.07% total winning probability. The horse was at a discount compared to its 5-1 odds. In the race, Lady Noy broke well from the gate, but #1 Miss Loretta took over the lead on the back stretch. After a scorching opening quarter of 21 seconds and change, Lady Noy fell back going around the far turn, only to re-engage along the rail down the stretch. Beating two horses with lower odds in #9 Cookie Cove at 9-5 and #6 Sabina Park at 7-2, Lady Noy paid $12.00 for the win. The $2 exacta with #12 Dancingwithjimmieb paid $612.40. It was possible to find Dancingwithjimmieb in the exacta because of her 3rd highest COMP estimate in the field at 12.5% behind #6 Sabina Park at 15% and Lady Noy at 69%.