By The Handicap Wizard had good results in both graded stakes races at Gulfstream today. In the $150K Mashua River Stakes in the 8th, run at 1 1/16 mi. on the turf for four year-old fillies and mares, the program had it as a toss up between Magic Star at 5-2 with a 24.86% winning probability and #5 Andina Del Sur at 2-1 with a 24.84% winning probability. Magic Star won the race, thanks to a 29% SPD estimate and a dominant 77.5% LP estimate, which was favorable for the longer distance of this race. Magic Star paid $7.00 for the win. Andina Del Sur finished 3rd by under a length.
In the 10th race, the $100K Tropical Turf Stakes, run at 1 mi. on the turf for four-year olds and upwards, the Handicap Wizard Turf program had #8 Thread of Blue as its top selection with a total winning probability of 41.36%, which was in-line with its 8-5 odds. However, the highest COMP estimates in the field went to #4 Gidu at 37.1% and #6 Tusk at 19.6%. Even though the horses had low Winning Percentages at 2.6% and 3.8%, their COMP estimates were solid because of the low Coefficient of Variance of both horses at 5% and 4%, respectively, implying high confidence in the COMP figures. Again, the COMP estimate is the result of a simulation of E1, E2 and LP added together. By that measure, both horses were overlays relative to their 6-1 and 8-1 odds. As it turns out, Tusk was the winner and Gidu finished second. Tusk paid $19 for the win. The $2 exacta paid $131.20.
Pro-Handicap Analytics 