By There was a spectacular result today in 3rd at Fairgrounds, a $5K claiming race at 6f on the dirt for fillies and mares four-years old and up. At 21-1, #4 Heart of Soul was being neglected by the market, even though she had good data showing early speed that made the horse competitive in this kind of race. Her E1 and E2 estimates from simulation were 31.6% and 18.2% with a 22.0% COMP figure. The COMP figure was solid because of Heart and Soul’s Coefficient of Variance ratio of only 7%, indicating that the horse had relatively low risk. On that basis, the horse was fairly valued at 4-1 compared to its price of 21-1. The market favored #7 Blondie Lox Babe at 5-2 and #9 Lady Fitzgerald at 7-2 because of their superior Winning Percentages at 27% and 20%. Lady Fitzgerald also had the edge in final speed at 63.5%, but had no evidence of early speed. In the race, Heart of Soul broke well from the gate to take the early lead. She remained in the driver’s seat on the back-stretch, around the far turn, and into the final stretch, when she led by two lengths. Digging in, she held off a late challenge by #5 Kehron’s Creed at 7-1 to get the win. Heart and Soul paid $45.20. This was an example of using advanced handicapping techniques with the program and it paid off nicely.
Pro-Handicap Analytics 