Smarty Jones Stakes

Oaklawn Park kicks off today with the $150K Jones Stakes—the first of three Kentucky Derby prep races at the track—run at 1 mi. on the dirt for three-year olds. The contest appears to be wide open, with no horse receiving higher than a 20% winning probability according to the program. The top selection is #2 Silver Prospector, who has the 2nd highest winning SPD estimate in the field at 33.8% and the second highest LP estimate at 36.4%. The horse also has the second highest Winning Percentage at 14.1%. However, given its 5-2 price on the M/L, Silver Prospector is on the expensive side. #6 Gold Street may well be the pick to click in this race with its 5-1 M/L price versus a total winning probability of 19.46%, making him a slight underlay. He has a higher winning SPD estimate at 38.4%, respectable E1 and E2 figures of 22.0% and 16.8% and a solid COMP estimate of 39.1%. The CV value of 15% can be excused, when he has improved in his last four races. #7 Shoplifted also deserves consideration, in view of his highest-in-the-field Winning Percentage of 25.6%. By that measure, he would be at fair value at 3-1, but his SPD estimate does not stack up as well to that of Silver Prospector and Gold Street. He has good consistency, though, with a CV ratio of only 4%, which is second lowest in the field after #6 Lynn’s Map. #9 Three Technique may be the best horse in the field after winning his last two. He is being undervalued in the model because of his last SPD of 81, but he won that $80K OC race at Aqueduct in November by four lengths. Three Technique has had bullet workouts in January.