Day: January 25, 2020

On Saturday is the $3 Million Pegasus World Cup at Gulfstream, run at 1 1/8 mi. on the dirt for four year-olds and up. Following the scratches of two favorites in Omaha Beach and Spun to Run after the post positions were announced, the field is now at ten, but has only two G1 winners in #6 Higher Power and #4 Seeking the Soul. Consequently, the field is much weaker than it should be, and it shows in the model results, with none of the horses having a winning probability higher than 16%. The top selection is Higher Power at 15.95%, who has the highest winning SPD estimate at 24.3% and the second highest Winning Percentage at 17.6%. However, value is unlikely to be found with Higher Power after the scratches. Even though it has the highest WP in the field at 31.7%, the last race Seeking the Soul won was the G2 Stephen Foster at Churchill last June. Since then, he has not placed better than 4th, with two 6th place and one 7th place finish. In view of his win in the Harlan’s Holiday at 1 1/16 mi. at Gulfstream in December, #7 War Story deserves consideration as a win contender and is cheap according to his M/L price of 30-1. This has to do with his low Winning Percentage of 5.4%; however, his winning SPD estimate of 17.8% coupled with a low CV ratio of 6% indicates that his fair value is closer to 5-1 than 30-1. Additionally, he has the second highest LP in the field at 17.6%, which is favorable to the distance of this race. Otherwise, the COMP figures are showing #12 Bodexpress, #8 Mr. Freeze and #1 True Timber to have strength at 27.6%, 18.8% and 18.5% versus M/L odds of 30-1, 20-1 and 15-1, respectively. Bodexpress has done well at Gulfstream, placing 3rd in the Harlan’s Holiday and 2nd in the Florida Derby last year behind eventual Kentucky Derby Winner, Maximum Security. Mr. Freeze has hit the board in his last three graded stakes races, including a 3rd in the G1 Clark Stakes at Churchill in Nov. and a 2nd in the G2 Fayette Stakes at Keeneland in October, both at 1 1/8 mi. True Timber is similar to Mr. Freeze, in that he has also hit the board in his last three with all show finishes. including in the G1 Cigar Mile at Aqueduct in December and in the G3 Bold Ruler at Belmont in October. However, True Timber is light in the LP category at only 5.9%, so it is unclear whether the horse can compete at the 1 1/8 mi. distance. In sum, Higher Power is the first choice in the race, thanks to his highest in the field SPD estimate of 24.3%, but he will be pricey at anything below 3-1. War Story offers better value, followed by Mr. Freeze and Bodexpress.

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