Day: January 26, 2020

Who would have thought that today was as easy as betting on the Baffert Horse to win? That was how it went in the Pegasus World Cup at 1 1/8 mi. on dirt with #10 Mucho Gusto at 3-1 under the jockeying of Irad Ortiz Jr. upsetting #6 Higher Power at 5-2. The Handicap Wizard rated Higher Power as best in the field along with the market with a total winning probability of 15.38%, which made him an overlay. Mucho Gusto was a big overlay at 3-1 versus his winning probability of 7.98%. So why did the program miss Mucho Gusto? The main reason is that his speed estimates did not compare well against those of the other horses in the field, even though the horse posted three plus 100 final speed figures in his last starts. His consistency actually worked against him, which compressed the results of his final speed simulation into a tighter range, whereas Higher Power, War Story and Tax all projected better with more risk. Mucho Gusto did have the third highest Winning Percentage, adjusted for stakes, but it did not help him being under 10%. His last workout at Santa Anita on Jan. 16 was solid at 1:11 for 6f. As predicted in the preview, War Story did offer value in the race, going off even higher than expected at 15-1 versus his 10.9% total win probability. Had Joel Rosario not allowed the horse to get many lengths behind in the early stages of the race, War Story would have been in a better position to get place instead of having to settle for show.  And another of the horses recommended in the preview, #8 Mr. Freeze, did better than expected by coming in second at 7-1.