Month: February 2020

Here are the projections for today’s $400K Fountain of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream, run at 1 1/16 mi. on the dirt for three-year olds. The results largely follow the order of the horses that rate best by speed, with #12 Chance It as the first selection at 7-2 on the M/L, following by #8 Ete Indien second at 8-1 and #6 As Seen On TV third at 9-2. The M/L favorite, however, is #5 Dennis Moment at 2-1, who had a bullet workout on this track on Feb. 23 of 0:48 for 4f. The horse’s preferred status is surprising, considering that his speed estimates are low compared to the field and he does not have a stellar Winning Percentage at only 8.6%. Dennis Moment won the G3 Iroquis at 1 1/16 mi. at Churchill on Sept. 14, but finished a distance 8th in the Breeders Cup Juvenile in November at Santa Anita. He has not run again since then. Horses that offer value are Ete Indien because of his favorable speed estimates of 31.9% for SPD, 48.5% for E1, 28.9% for E2, 18.3% for LP and 31.7% for COMP. By speed, he appears to have a fair value around 5-2 or better. Another is Gear Jockey at 20-1 on the M/L, whose Winning Percentage is second highest at 15.7%, which would put him at 6-1 or 7-1 fair value. As a long shot, #7 Country Grammer at 15-1 has the strongest LP estimate at 38.1% and has shown good progression in terms of final speed figures from 72 in his first race to 94 in his last.

In the two main races for three-year olds this past weekend, the $250K Withers at Aqueduct and the $250K Holy Bull at Gulfstream, the program had the tri-fecta in the Holy Bull and a fourth selection won the Withers. At 5-1 #3 Max Player won the Withers with a total winning probability of 10.56%, which made it an overlay. The horse had strong late speed, as indicated by its 64% winning LP estimate. This is what happened in the race, with Max Player running down the field in the final stretch. The horse paid $12.80 for the win.

In the Holy Bull at Gulfsream, the race went according to projections. Thanks to a 48% Winning Percentage, #3 Tiz the Law at 6-5 had the highest winning probability in the field at 32.65%. Second was #4 Ete Indien at 23.95% and third #1 Toleda at 20%. That was the order of the tri-fecta, even though Toleda had lower odds than Ete Indien.