In the two main races for three-year olds this past weekend, the $250K Withers at Aqueduct and the $250K Holy Bull at Gulfstream, the program had the tri-fecta in the Holy Bull and a fourth selection won the Withers. At 5-1 #3 Max Player won the Withers with a total winning probability of 10.56%, which made it an overlay. The horse had strong late speed, as indicated by its 64% winning LP estimate. This is what happened in the race, with Max Player running down the field in the final stretch. The horse paid $12.80 for the win.
In the Holy Bull at Gulfsream, the race went according to projections. Thanks to a 48% Winning Percentage, #3 Tiz the Law at 6-5 had the highest winning probability in the field at 32.65%. Second was #4 Ete Indien at 23.95% and third #1 Toleda at 20%. That was the order of the tri-fecta, even though Toleda had lower odds than Ete Indien.
Pro-Handicap Analytics 