Month: March 2020

Here are the final odds and results for the Florida Derby at Gulfstream on Sat., Mar. 28.

At Gulfstream today is the $750K G1 Florida Derby, run at 1 1/8 mi. on the dirt for three-year-olds. The top contenders are #7 Tiz the Law, winner of the G3 Holy Bull at Gulfstream on Feb. 1 and the G1 Champaign Stakes at Belmont on Oct. 5 as a two-year-old, #12 Ete Indien, who won the G2 Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream on Feb. 29 and finished second to Tiz the Law in the Holy Bull, #9 Independence Hall, who came in second to Sole Volante in the Sam F. Davis at Tampa on Feb. 8, and #1 As Seen On TV, who has hit the board in four consecutive stakes races, including 2nd in the Mucho Macho Man at Tampa and 3rd in the Fountain of Youth. Though it is very close between the two, the program favors Ete Indien as its top selection with a win probability of 28.84% followed by Tiz the Law at 26.54% probability. Tiz the Law is the favorite on the M/L at 6/5 due to his performance in the Holy Bull, in which he beat Ete Indien by three lengths with a final BRIS speed figure of 108. However, his speed figures prior to that race were not as quick with values of 89, 93 and 97. Ete Indien, on the other hand, has had three triple digit speed figures in his last three races, perhaps pointing to more consistency in the horse. In terms of the component speed figures, Ete Indien has the advantage in E1 and E2 with estimates of 48.7% and 35.7%, while Tiz the Law has the advantage in LP at 45.9% estimate. Only Independence Hall and and As Seen on TV project anywhere near these horses as far as speed, but would have to improve fairly substantially to win this race. As Seen on TV is less appealing for having regressed in his most recent race with a third place finish in the Fountain of Youth. For his part, Independence Hall has done nothing wrong in winning three out of four starts and has the breeding as a Constitution colt, who won the Florida Derby in 2014. In sum, if Tiz the Law (as another Constitution colt) can maintain his recent form he will be tough to beat in this race, but Ete Indien should be right on his heels. 

The program had a good result today in race 10 at Gulfstream, a $16K claiming race on the turf for four-year-olds, with #3 Belgrano at 5-1 as its top selection. With a total win probability of 27.6%, the horse beat out the favorite #1 Peacock Kitten at 1-1 as well as #11 The Mighty Judge at 2-1. In the race, #1 Peacock Kitten and #9 Devoted Kitten broke quickest from the gate and led onto the back stretch, while Belgrano stalked on the inside two lengths back. Belgrano made a four wide bid around the far turn and then dueled with Devoted Kitten down the stretch before prevailing by a head. Only with the PHW Turf Program could Belgrano have been spotted in this race, showing its effectiveness in filtering just turf data.

The Handicap Wizard had the winner of the $1 mil. Louisiana Derby (G2) with its top selection of  #3 Wells Bayou at 4-1, who went wire-to-wire in victory. #10 Enforceable was the favorite at 3-1. The program also had the show horse correct in #10 Modernist. Here are the final odds and results.

Here are the projections for today’s $1 mil. Louisiana Derby at the Fair Grounds, run at 1 3/16 mi. on the dirt for three-year-olds. Out of a field of sixteen horses, the program likes Brad Cox trained #3 Wells Bayou as the first choice with a total win probability of 28.62% versus 8-1 on the M/L. The horse finished a length behind Silver Prospector in the Southwest Stakes with a final time of 1:43.01 for 1 1/16 mi and previously won an allowance race at 1 mi. Wells Bayou has the highest SPD estimate in the field at 37.6% along with superior E1, E2 and COMP figures of 82.4%, 31% and 74%. He is also the classiest horse with a 14% Winning Percentage. Second is #10 Enforceable with a 15.6% win probability, who finished second to Mr. Monomy in the quickest of the Risen Star divisions on Feb. 15. Prior to that he won the Lecomte at the Fairgrounds on Jan. 18. Enforceable has the second highest SPD estimate at 28.8% and the strongest LP estimate at 27.6%. Weak, however, is his COMP at 1.2%, meaning that his simulated component speed estimates together do not stack up well against the other horses. The next three horses are Bill Mott trained #14 Modernist, winner of his last two, including the slower division of the Risen Star, with a 8.49% win probability, #6 Silver State with 7.84% and #9 Portos with 6.95%. Todd Pletcher trained Portos could be interesting after closing well from well off the pace to finish 3rd in the 1 1/8 mi. Withers at Aqueduct on Feb. 1. In sum, Wells Bayou’s superior speed data suggests he would have significant value at his 8-1 M/L price when his fair value is 3-1. None of the other horses rate well as far as speed, except Enforceable, whose component speed figures indicate weakness apart from LP.  Click on the link in the lower right to see the projections in full-resolution.