Today features two Kentucky Derby prep races for three-year olds, namely the $300k G3 Gotham Stakes at Aqueduct and the $400K G2 Tampa Bay Derby at Tampa Downs. The Gotham Stakes, run at 1 mi. on the dirt, appears to be a wide open contest according to the program, with no horse receiving a win probability higher than 20%. The top selection is Attachment Rate at 9/2 on the M/L versus a 18.93% win probability, who, despite being a maiden, has the highest final speed estimate at 26.3% after recording a field-best 102 final speed figure in his last race. He also has the top LP estimate in the field at 38.8%. Next is Montaux Traffic at 6-1 on the M/L compared to a 17.66% win probability, who comes into the race with two wins in three starts, including a stakes win in the Jimmy Winfield at 7f at Aqueduct on Feb. 8. The third selection is Mischievous Alex at 3-1 on the M/L versus a 15.4% win probability, who won the Swale Stakes at 7f at Gulfstream on Feb. 1 and the Parx Juvenile at 7f at Parx on Nov. 5.
The Tampa Bay Derby has two proven horses in Chance It at 5-2 on the M/L and Sole Violate at 2-1 on the M/L, who will be battling it out. Chance It was the winner of the Mucho Macho Man Stakes at 1 mi. at Gulfstream on Jan. 4, while Sole Violante won the Sam F. Davis Stakes at 1 1/16 mi. at Tampa Bay on Feb. 8. The speed advantage goes to Chance It with a 43.4% final speed estimate, thanks to three triple-digit final speed figures in his last three races. However, Sole Violate, is not far behind at 24.3% final speed estimate after posting final speed figures of 102 and 100 in his last two races. The M/L appears to be favoring Sole Violate because of late speed strength, showing a 35.2% LP estimate, which is favorable to the 1 1/16 mi. distance. The surprise of the race may be Unrighteous, the son of Violence, who with a final speed estimate of 15.8% is cheap at 20-1 on the M/L.
Pro-Handicap Analytics 