Florida Derby Preview, Sat., Mar. 28

At Gulfstream today is the $750K G1 Florida Derby, run at 1 1/8 mi. on the dirt for three-year-olds. The top contenders are #7 Tiz the Law, winner of the G3 Holy Bull at Gulfstream on Feb. 1 and the G1 Champaign Stakes at Belmont on Oct. 5 as a two-year-old, #12 Ete Indien, who won the G2 Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream on Feb. 29 and finished second to Tiz the Law in the Holy Bull, #9 Independence Hall, who came in second to Sole Volante in the Sam F. Davis at Tampa on Feb. 8, and #1 As Seen On TV, who has hit the board in four consecutive stakes races, including 2nd in the Mucho Macho Man at Tampa and 3rd in the Fountain of Youth. Though it is very close between the two, the program favors Ete Indien as its top selection with a win probability of 28.84% followed by Tiz the Law at 26.54% probability. Tiz the Law is the favorite on the M/L at 6/5 due to his performance in the Holy Bull, in which he beat Ete Indien by three lengths with a final BRIS speed figure of 108. However, his speed figures prior to that race were not as quick with values of 89, 93 and 97. Ete Indien, on the other hand, has had three triple digit speed figures in his last three races, perhaps pointing to more consistency in the horse. In terms of the component speed figures, Ete Indien has the advantage in E1 and E2 with estimates of 48.7% and 35.7%, while Tiz the Law has the advantage in LP at 45.9% estimate. Only Independence Hall and and As Seen on TV project anywhere near these horses as far as speed, but would have to improve fairly substantially to win this race. As Seen on TV is less appealing for having regressed in his most recent race with a third place finish in the Fountain of Youth. For his part, Independence Hall has done nothing wrong in winning three out of four starts and has the breeding as a Constitution colt, who won the Florida Derby in 2014. In sum, if Tiz the Law (as another Constitution colt) can maintain his recent form he will be tough to beat in this race, but Ete Indien should be right on his heels.