Month: April 2020

There was an excellent opportunity in race 8 at Will Rodgers today to take advantage of long odds on the #2 horse, Fox Run, to hit a big exacta. #8 Spendaholic was the favorite at 1-1 and top selection with a win probability of 23.45%. Spendaholic had the highest final speed estimate at 36.7% as well as the highest E1 and E2 estimate at 53.6% and 47.7%. Using this horse in an exacta box, the next horse to take according to final speed was #2 Foxrun at 25.7%, who at 17-1 odds was priced at a steep discount (3-1 FV by final speed). This was surprising considering that the horse was coming into the race in better form than Spendaholic. In the race, Foxrun dug in and beat Spendaholic down the stretch. The $2 exacta paid $144.60.

 

In the HW strategy book, found under the HW Book link above, there is a chapter on advanced strategies, in which it talks about how one can be successful focusing on individual metrics, instead of solely on the TOP (Total Win Probability) category. At Tampa yesterday there were two races that illustrate this strategy. In race 2, a $12.5K claiming race at 1 1/16 mi. on the turf for three-year olds, the #5 horse, Itsgottabemyway, had an exceptionally high LP estimate of 72.9%, suggesting the horse would dominate the other horses over the final quarter. That is what happened in the race, with Itsgottabemyway winning easily down the stretch. The horse paid $14.20.

 

In the 8th race, a $20K optional claiming race at 5f on the turf for three-year-olds, the favorite was #8 Summer Assault, who at 3-5 odds had a win probability of 34.59%, thanks to a 100% estimate in the final speed category (SPD). The second selection was #3 Sea Lover at 10-1 odds with a 25.37% win probability. Here the betting public overbet Summer Assault because of his final speed, while failing to take into account Sea Lover’s dominate early speed advantage, as shown in its E1 and E2 estimates of 82.2% and 100.0%. The horse did not disappoint, winning down the stretch while paying $21.40. The Grey version was used for this race, because of the limited turf data and limited data overall.

 

Here is a nice result from the early going at Tampa in the 3rd, a $6.5K claiming race at 6f on the dirt for four-year old fillies and mares. On a muddy track, the program had #6 Dad’s Yankees as the first selection with a 19.8% total win probability followed by #8 Northern with 18.66% probability. Dad’s Yankees was a substantial underlay at 11-1 while Northern was priced at about fair value at 4-1. Dad’s Yankees was attractive in the race because of her early speed, as shown in the E1 and E2 estimates of 92.5% and 23.2%, which suited this sprint distance. In the race, Dad’s Yankees won the break and  led the race until the final 1/16 mi., when the tiring horse was caught by Northern. Dad’s Yankees paid $10.20 for the place and the $2 Exacta 8-6 paid $76.20.

In the 4th, a $5K claiming race at 6f on the dirt for four-year olds filies and mares, the program had the winner with its first selection in #3 Burke’s Babe at 5-1, who was about fairly priced relative to a 17.56% win probability. The horse had strong E1 and E2 estimates of 50.9% and 62.9%, which again were well suited to the 6f sprint distance. In a twelve horse field, Burke’s Babe went wire-to-wire, paying $12.40 for the win.

 

 

 

There were two races at Gulfstream yesterday that exemplify how the program can be used to achieve profitable results. In the 5th, a $20K maiden race at 1 mi. on the turf for three-year olds fillies, the favorite and program first selection was #2 Philly Special at 6-5. The horse was an underlay at those odds versus a 29.98% win probability. The next two selections in #5 Chouchou De Boo and #8 Polished Copper offered value with odds of 7-1 and 8-1 compared to probabilities of 22.22% and 17.89%, which gave them positive expected ROI values of 78% and 61%. Either of the horses would have made good win or place candidates. As it turned out, one would have won betting place on both horses, with Polished Copper coming in first and Choucho De Boo second. Polished Copper paid $18.20 and the $2 exacta 8-5 paid $134.40.

In the 8th race, a $50K optional claiming race at 5f for three-year old filies on the turf, the favorite and program 1st selection was #5 Shippy at 1-1 odds. The horse, too, was overpriced versus a win probability of 31.47%. Where there was value was in the 3rd selection, #3 Poseidon’s Passion, at 12-1. Going by his win probability of 9.53%, Poseidon’s Passion was a slight underlay. However, according to his E1 and E2 estimates of 24.2% and 20.1%, which covers the 5f – 6f distance, the horse’s fair value was between 3-1 and 4-1. In other words, the horse was at a heavy discount according to the E1 and E2 simulation results, when only Shippy appeared faster with E1 and E2 values of 7.8% and 64.3%. Poseidon’s Passion won the race, paying $26.60, while Shippy came in second. The $2 exacta paid $91.60. There certainly was risk taking Poseidon’s Passion in this race as a first-time turf horse, but the data supported the horse having good speed in a sprint. Here the grey version had to be used, since some of the horses, like Poseidon’s Passion, had no turf data.

Race 5

Race 8

 

The Handicap Wizard had winners with its top selections in four out of five non-maiden races at Will Rodgers today, specifically, in the 2nd, 3rd, 5th and 10th. The program nearly had the late pick three correct, winning the maiden race in the 8th as well. Its second choice in #1 Sugoi won the 9th with a win probability just 1.4% below that of the first selection. The $0.50 late pick three 1-1-9 paid $15.90.

Race 2

Race 3

Race 5

Race 8

Race 9

Race 10