Day: April 18, 2020

Here is a nice result from the early going at Tampa in the 3rd, a $6.5K claiming race at 6f on the dirt for four-year old fillies and mares. On a muddy track, the program had #6 Dad’s Yankees as the first selection with a 19.8% total win probability followed by #8 Northern with 18.66% probability. Dad’s Yankees was a substantial underlay at 11-1 while Northern was priced at about fair value at 4-1. Dad’s Yankees was attractive in the race because of her early speed, as shown in the E1 and E2 estimates of 92.5% and 23.2%, which suited this sprint distance. In the race, Dad’s Yankees won the break and  led the race until the final 1/16 mi., when the tiring horse was caught by Northern. Dad’s Yankees paid $10.20 for the place and the $2 Exacta 8-6 paid $76.20.

In the 4th, a $5K claiming race at 6f on the dirt for four-year olds filies and mares, the program had the winner with its first selection in #3 Burke’s Babe at 5-1, who was about fairly priced relative to a 17.56% win probability. The horse had strong E1 and E2 estimates of 50.9% and 62.9%, which again were well suited to the 6f sprint distance. In a twelve horse field, Burke’s Babe went wire-to-wire, paying $12.40 for the win.

There were two races at Gulfstream yesterday that exemplify how the program can be used to achieve profitable results. In the 5th, a $20K maiden race at 1 mi. on the turf for three-year olds fillies, the favorite and program first selection was #2 Philly Special at 6-5. The horse was an underlay at those odds versus a 29.98% win probability. The next two selections in #5 Chouchou De Boo and #8 Polished Copper offered value with odds of 7-1 and 8-1 compared to probabilities of 22.22% and 17.89%, which gave them positive expected ROI values of 78% and 61%. Either of the horses would have made good win or place candidates. As it turned out, one would have won betting place on both horses, with Polished Copper coming in first and Choucho De Boo second. Polished Copper paid $18.20 and the $2 exacta 8-5 paid $134.40.

In the 8th race, a $50K optional claiming race at 5f for three-year old filies on the turf, the favorite and program 1st selection was #5 Shippy at 1-1 odds. The horse, too, was overpriced versus a win probability of 31.47%. Where there was value was in the 3rd selection, #3 Poseidon’s Passion, at 12-1. Going by his win probability of 9.53%, Poseidon’s Passion was a slight underlay. However, according to his E1 and E2 estimates of 24.2% and 20.1%, which covers the 5f – 6f distance, the horse’s fair value was between 3-1 and 4-1. In other words, the horse was at a heavy discount according to the E1 and E2 simulation results, when only Shippy appeared faster with E1 and E2 values of 7.8% and 64.3%. Poseidon’s Passion won the race, paying $26.60, while Shippy came in second. The $2 exacta paid $91.60. There certainly was risk taking Poseidon’s Passion in this race as a first-time turf horse, but the data supported the horse having good speed in a sprint. Here the grey version had to be used, since some of the horses, like Poseidon’s Passion, had no turf data.

Race 5

Race 8