By There were two races at Gulfstream yesterday that exemplify how the program can be used to achieve profitable results. In the 5th, a $20K maiden race at 1 mi. on the turf for three-year olds fillies, the favorite and program first selection was #2 Philly Special at 6-5. The horse was an underlay at those odds versus a 29.98% win probability. The next two selections in #5 Chouchou De Boo and #8 Polished Copper offered value with odds of 7-1 and 8-1 compared to probabilities of 22.22% and 17.89%, which gave them positive expected ROI values of 78% and 61%. Either of the horses would have made good win or place candidates. As it turned out, one would have won betting place on both horses, with Polished Copper coming in first and Choucho De Boo second. Polished Copper paid $18.20 and the $2 exacta 8-5 paid $134.40.
In the 8th race, a $50K optional claiming race at 5f for three-year old filies on the turf, the favorite and program 1st selection was #5 Shippy at 1-1 odds. The horse, too, was overpriced versus a win probability of 31.47%. Where there was value was in the 3rd selection, #3 Poseidon’s Passion, at 12-1. Going by his win probability of 9.53%, Poseidon’s Passion was a slight underlay. However, according to his E1 and E2 estimates of 24.2% and 20.1%, which covers the 5f – 6f distance, the horse’s fair value was between 3-1 and 4-1. In other words, the horse was at a heavy discount according to the E1 and E2 simulation results, when only Shippy appeared faster with E1 and E2 values of 7.8% and 64.3%. Poseidon’s Passion won the race, paying $26.60, while Shippy came in second. The $2 exacta paid $91.60. There certainly was risk taking Poseidon’s Passion in this race as a first-time turf horse, but the data supported the horse having good speed in a sprint. Here the grey version had to be used, since some of the horses, like Poseidon’s Passion, had no turf data.
Race 5
Race 8
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