By In the HW strategy book, found under the HW Book link above, there is a chapter on advanced strategies, in which it talks about how one can be successful focusing on individual metrics, instead of solely on the TOP (Total Win Probability) category. At Tampa yesterday there were two races that illustrate this strategy. In race 2, a $12.5K claiming race at 1 1/16 mi. on the turf for three-year olds, the #5 horse, Itsgottabemyway, had an exceptionally high LP estimate of 72.9%, suggesting the horse would dominate the other horses over the final quarter. That is what happened in the race, with Itsgottabemyway winning easily down the stretch. The horse paid $14.20.
In the 8th race, a $20K optional claiming race at 5f on the turf for three-year-olds, the favorite was #8 Summer Assault, who at 3-5 odds had a win probability of 34.59%, thanks to a 100% estimate in the final speed category (SPD). The second selection was #3 Sea Lover at 10-1 odds with a 25.37% win probability. Here the betting public overbet Summer Assault because of his final speed, while failing to take into account Sea Lover’s dominate early speed advantage, as shown in its E1 and E2 estimates of 82.2% and 100.0%. The horse did not disappoint, winning down the stretch while paying $21.40. The Grey version was used for this race, because of the limited turf data and limited data overall.
Pro-Handicap Analytics 