There was an excellent opportunity in race 8 at Will Rodgers today to take advantage of long odds on the #2 horse, Fox Run, to hit a big exacta. #8 Spendaholic was the favorite at 1-1 and top selection with a win probability of 23.45%. Spendaholic had the highest final speed estimate at 36.7% as well as the highest E1 and E2 estimate at 53.6% and 47.7%. Using this horse in an exacta box, the next horse to take according to final speed was #2 Foxrun at 25.7%, who at 17-1 odds was priced at a steep discount (3-1 FV by final speed). This was surprising considering that the horse was coming into the race in better form than Spendaholic. In the race, Foxrun dug in and beat Spendaholic down the stretch. The $2 exacta paid $144.60.
Pro-Handicap Analytics 