Month: May 2020

Every so often there is an anomaly in the wagering system, where a horse is grossly mispriced relative to its speed characteristics and record. That was the case in the 7th race at Tampa today, a $30K claiming race at 7f for three-year old fillies and mares. #7 Cloud Charmer was being ignored by the market at 30-1, even though the horse had recorded a field high final speed figure of 92 two races back. The program accounted for his competitive history in assigning a 18.3% winning final speed estimate from the simulation, which put his fair value at 5-1, much less than his odds of 30-1. His Winning Percentage of 12% suggested a fair value of 8-1. In the race, Cloud Charmer broke best from the gate but it was the 6-5 favorite, #2 Proposition, that led through the opening quarter, which went off at 22.81. On the back stretch, Cloud Charmer fell back four lengths before rallying around the far turn, cutting Proposition’s lead to only two by the quarter pole. Propelled by momentum, Cloud Charmer put away his opponent inside the sixteenth in the upset. The horse paid $62.20. This handicapper did follow the program and had Cloud Charmer to place.

The program had a nice result today in the 6th at Gulfstream, an $8K claiming race at 6.5f on the dirt for four-year olds. #3 Joe Di Baggio at 7-2 won as the top selection over the favorite, #8 Karen’s Cove, at 1-1. Joe Di Baggio had advantages in SPD and LP with winning estimates of 38.6% and 56.7% against a Coefficient of Variation of 8%, meaning the horse had about average risk. The high absolute value of Joe Di Baggio’s LP estimate mattered greatly in the race, with the horse making an outside bid at the top of the stretch before surging late to catch #6 Tip Sheet and Karen’s Coven, who came in 3rd. Joe Di Baggio paid $9.20 for the win. This is an example of a race going exactly according to projections. Joe Di Baggio’s strength in speed data turned was true.

It was a good day for the Handicap Wizard at Churchill, with the program having winners with its top two selections in the two premier races, the $150K Matt Winn Stakes in the 10th with #10 Maxfield at 6-5 and the $100K War Chant Stakes in the 11th with #9 Smooth Like a Straight at 5-1. Smooth Like a Straight had a big advantage in E1 and E2 according to the simulation with win estimates of 55.4% and 59.1%, while its total win probability was 17.35%. In the race, Smooth Like a Straight went to the early lead along with #3 Island Commish at 13-1. It stayed that way on the back stretch and into the far turn, before Smooth Like a Straight broke away at the top of the stretch and held on for the win by two lengths over #12 Pixelate. Smooth Like A Straight paid $12.20 in this open contest.

Race 11: War Chant Results

Race 10: Matt Winn Results

Here are the probability projections for today’s $150K Matt Winn Stakes at Churchill, run at 1 1/16 mi. on the dirt for three-year olds. #10 Maxfield is the top selection with a total win probability of 29.50% and a final speed estimate of 38.5%. He is also the class of the field with a Winning Percentage, adjusted for stakes, of 37.1% and is the morning line favorite at 5-2. #5 Flap Jack had a blow out performance in his last race with E1 and E2 figures of 110 and 111 but an LP of only 11, so his E1 and E2 estimates are distorted as a result. #2 Pneumatic and #6 NY Traffic are likely better plays for place and show. #1 Mystic Guide is intriguing as a long shot at 20-1 on the M/L, considering his 37.5% LP estimate, which is higher than Maxfields 31.2%. Click on the image and then the link in the lower right to see the image in full resolution. 

Here is a good result today at Churchill in the 9th race, with the Turf Program hitting the exacta cold, despite #5 Front the Fed being heavily favored at 6-5 . The Handicap Wizard had Mr. Dumas first with a 19.43% win probability, followed by Ritz A.P second at 16.83% and Front the Fed third at 14.76%. #9 Mr. Dumas projected best in term of final speed with a 34.4% win estimate and #6 Ritz A.P second at 25.9%. That is how the order went (9,6). This race is a good example of how well the program can perform when the risk of the horses is lower. For this $80K optional claiming race, the Coefficient of Variance was just 6%, which is fairly low. The $2 exacta paid $54.80.