There was a nice result in race 5 at Tampa today, a $10K claiming race at 1 mi on the turf for three-year old fillies and mares. According to the HW Turf Program, the horse with highest win probability was #7 Miss Lotus Flower at 11-1. Shortly before post the horse had been 30-1! The horse’s 50% win probability was due to a single race on the turf ten races back, in which the horse recorded a top-in-the-field final speed figure of 76. The race had two favorites in #1 Beachtreasuregirl at 3-1 and #8 Wildcat Merry at 7-2. In the race, the #6 horse, Premiere Justice, who was a first-time turf starter at 9-2, took the lead by the half mile pole, followed closely by #8 Wildcat Merry. #1 Beachtreasure tracked in forth place seven lengths back. By the top of the stretch, Premiere Justice took clear command of first, while Miss Lotus rallied from the outside only to come up a length short in the end. Miss Lotus Flower lower paid $11.60 for the place. The race goes to show how precise the Turf Program is, that with just one set of speed figures for one race it was able to gauge Miss Lotus Flower’s historical strength on the turf surface correctly. On both dirt and turf, Premiere Justice had the second highest winning percentage at 15.7%, with strength in the E1 and E2 estimates. Here it would have prudent to look at the results of both the Grey and Turf models to get the full picture of competitiveness of the horses overall and specifically on turf.
Pro-Handicap Analytics 