Day: May 16, 2020

The program had a good result in the one stakes race at Gulfstream in race 8, the $75K Powder Break Stakes at 1 mi. on the turf’/off turf for fillies and mares three-years-old and up. The favorite was #3 Bella Ciao at 2-1, who did not rate strong according to the program but did win her last race at the $50K stakes level in driving fashion. Two horses that did rate well by final speed were #2 Jakarta with a 26.7% SPD estimate and #11 W W Fitzy with a 36.2% estimate. Jakarta was at a big discount at 11-1 odds, when her fair value was 3-1 by final speed projections. The horse was not risky either given its CV of 8%. In the race, Jakarta broke quickest from the gate and went wire-to-wire, while #3 Bella Ciao surged late from behind to get second. The $2 exacta 2,3 paid $77.60.

In race 6 at Gulfstream yesterday, a $35K maiden claiming race at 1 mi. on the dirt for three-year olds and up, #8 Youcantcatchcurlin was a horse that was overlooked at 30-1 but offered significant value in terms of speed. Though the horse had no money finishes in two races, he rated third best according to the final speed simulation with a 10.8% win estimate. He fared even better according to E1, E2 and LP individually with estimates of 28.2%, 15.4% and 41.5%, not to mention the horse showing good progression in his last race and being a son of Curlin! This all pointed to a horse that was at a steep discount at 30-1, whose fair value was below 9-1 and probably closer to 5-1. In the race, #4 Swing West broke fastest from the gate and was followed closely by one of the favorites, #5, Fried Rice King at 2-1, who was the top selection according to the program. Following a fast opening quarter of 22.75, Youcantcatchcurlin ran some nine lengths back before launching a bid at the half mile pole that propelled him to the lead at the top stretch, where he dug in all the way to the wire, holding off the other favorite, #6 Tons of Gold at 9-5, and resulting in a dead heat. Youcantcatchcurlin paid $22.40 for the win tie and $17.20 for the place.