Day: May 23, 2020

It was a good day for the Handicap Wizard at Churchill, with the program having winners with its top two selections in the two premier races, the $150K Matt Winn Stakes in the 10th with #10 Maxfield at 6-5 and the $100K War Chant Stakes in the 11th with #9 Smooth Like a Straight at 5-1. Smooth Like a Straight had a big advantage in E1 and E2 according to the simulation with win estimates of 55.4% and 59.1%, while its total win probability was 17.35%. In the race, Smooth Like a Straight went to the early lead along with #3 Island Commish at 13-1. It stayed that way on the back stretch and into the far turn, before Smooth Like a Straight broke away at the top of the stretch and held on for the win by two lengths over #12 Pixelate. Smooth Like A Straight paid $12.20 in this open contest.

Race 11: War Chant Results

Race 10: Matt Winn Results

Here are the probability projections for today’s $150K Matt Winn Stakes at Churchill, run at 1 1/16 mi. on the dirt for three-year olds. #10 Maxfield is the top selection with a total win probability of 29.50% and a final speed estimate of 38.5%. He is also the class of the field with a Winning Percentage, adjusted for stakes, of 37.1% and is the morning line favorite at 5-2. #5 Flap Jack had a blow out performance in his last race with E1 and E2 figures of 110 and 111 but an LP of only 11, so his E1 and E2 estimates are distorted as a result. #2 Pneumatic and #6 NY Traffic are likely better plays for place and show. #1 Mystic Guide is intriguing as a long shot at 20-1 on the M/L, considering his 37.5% LP estimate, which is higher than Maxfields 31.2%. Click on the image and then the link in the lower right to see the image in full resolution.