Matt Winn Stakes at Churchill, Sat., May 23

Here are the probability projections for today’s $150K Matt Winn Stakes at Churchill, run at 1 1/16 mi. on the dirt for three-year olds. #10 Maxfield is the top selection with a total win probability of 29.50% and a final speed estimate of 38.5%. He is also the class of the field with a Winning Percentage, adjusted for stakes, of 37.1% and is the morning line favorite at 5-2. #5 Flap Jack had a blow out performance in his last race with E1 and E2 figures of 110 and 111 but an LP of only 11, so his E1 and E2 estimates are distorted as a result. #2 Pneumatic and #6 NY Traffic are likely better plays for place and show. #1 Mystic Guide is intriguing as a long shot at 20-1 on the M/L, considering his 37.5% LP estimate, which is higher than Maxfields 31.2%. Click on the image and then the link in the lower right to see the image in full resolution.