By Every so often there is an anomaly in the wagering system, where a horse is grossly mispriced relative to its speed characteristics and record. That was the case in the 7th race at Tampa today, a $30K claiming race at 7f for three-year old fillies and mares. #7 Cloud Charmer was being ignored by the market at 30-1, even though the horse had recorded a field high final speed figure of 92 two races back. The program accounted for his competitive history in assigning a 18.3% winning final speed estimate from the simulation, which put his fair value at 5-1, much less than his odds of 30-1. His Winning Percentage of 12% suggested a fair value of 8-1. In the race, Cloud Charmer broke best from the gate but it was the 6-5 favorite, #2 Proposition, that led through the opening quarter, which went off at 22.81. On the back stretch, Cloud Charmer fell back four lengths before rallying around the far turn, cutting Proposition’s lead to only two by the quarter pole. Propelled by momentum, Cloud Charmer put away his opponent inside the sixteenth in the upset. The horse paid $62.20. This handicapper did follow the program and had Cloud Charmer to place.
Pro-Handicap Analytics 