In race 3 at Gulfstream today, a $12.5K claiming race at 1 mi. for four-year olds and up, the program’s first selection, #3 Creak Brklyn Law at 3-1, won over the odds favorite, #1 Dizzy Gillespie at 4-5. Creak Brklyn Law had a total winning probability of 29%, with a SPD estimate of 32.8% (2nd) and a Winning Percentage of 39.8% (1st). On the basis of WP, the horse’s fair value was about 7-5, yet went off at 3-1. As a first selection, Creak Brklyn Law was a slight underlay with an expected ROI of +16%.
Yesterday there was a good result in race 5 at Parx, a $7.5K claiming race at 1M 70Y for three-year-olds and up, in which the Program had the exacta order correct. The favorite was #1 Synergized at 1-1 with a 26% total win probability, who was a coupled entry with #1a Bridlecrest. The second selection was #6 Cape My Style at 20-1, who had a 16.42% total win probability. The horse was overlooked for having a low Winning Percentage of just 3.2%. However, its potential speed according to the simulation told a different story, in that the horse rated second overall with a 27% final speed estimate versus 29.4% for Synergized. On that basis, Cape My Style’s fair value was below 3-1. Compared to its total win probability, which accounts for the horse’s low winning percentage, the horse’s fair value was 5-1. Either way, Cape My Style was significantly underpriced with an expected ROI of +245%. In the race, Synergized took command down the stretch after having been on the lead, while Cape My Style rallied from off the pace to get second in a photo.
There was an excellent opportunity to find value in race 3 at Parx today, an $8K Allowance race at 6f for three-year old fillies and mares. Two horses that were taking most of the money were #3 Peach Alley at 5-2 and #5 Love on Fire at 8-5. These prices were consistent with the horses speed projections, with Peach Allen having a 45.9% SPD win estimate according to the simulation and #5 Love on Fire 38.2%. The horse that was being ignored was the third selection, #4 Coupella, though while having the third highest SPD estimate at only 8.5% had the highest Winning Percentage, adjusted for stakes at 26.8%. On that basis, the horse’s fair value was 3-1, but went off at 11-1. Even according to total win probability, Coupella fair value was about 6-1. Moreover, the horse had the lowest risk with a Coefficient of Variance of just 4%, meaning the horse has been very consistent at winning. With an expected ROI of +75%, Coupella satisfied the criteria of being both an underlay and a horse with a reasonable chance to win as a third selection.
Here are the final odds and results of the Belmont Stakes yesterday. As predicted by the program, #8 Tiz the Law was first at final odds of 4-5. #1 Tap It to Win looked formidable early on, leading the race until the quarter pole, but ultimately faded inside the last eighth. The horse that was highlighted as as long shot in the Preview, #3 Max Player at 14-1, finished two lengths behind #9 Dr. Post, who came in second. Both Tap It To Win and Sole Volante came into the race on just two weeks rest or less.
In race 10 on Saturday at Belmont Park in NY is the $1 million Belmont Stakes, run at 1 1/8 on the dirt for three-year olds. The Belmont is the first of the Triple Crown Races this year, after the Kentucky Derby was postponed until September. The field features #8 Tiz the Law at 6-5 on the M/L, who is a winner of his last two, including the G1 Florida Derby in late March and the Holy Bull in early Feb. He will be contested by #1 Tap It To Win at 8-1 from the Mark Casse barn, who also has won his last two. In his most recent start, Tap It To Win nearly set a track record at Belmont in a $66K Allowance at 1 1/16 mi. on June 4, finishing in 1:39 and 3. Another contender is the Sam F. Davis winner, #2 Sole Violate at 9-2, who won a $100K OC at 1 mi. at Gulfstream on June 10. Rounding out the field is #9 Dr. Post at 5-1, who won the $75K Unbridled at 1 1/16 mi. at Gulfstream on Apr. and Withers winner, #3 Max Player, at 15-1, who showed good late kick in that race. The program is projecting the race similar to the order of the M/L, favoring #8 Tiz the Law with a 31.38% total win probability. Second is #1 Tap It To Win at 18.84% win probability, followed by #2 Sole Volate at 16.67%. As much as Tiz the Law looks strong according to his metrics, he did regress in his last race and thus any of the top three selections could realistically win the Belmont. Tap It To Win has post one and comes into the race in peak form after his near recording-breaking effort on the Belmont track two weeks ago. On the other hand, Sole Volate was also sharp in his last race at Gulfstream in June and has the highest LP estimate in the field at 56.6%, which is a significantly high value. He could very well be the pick to click in this 1 1/8 mi. race if he can maintain form in his second start off the layoff. In sum, it is still Tiz the Law’s race to win, but Tap It To Win could be like a “fish to water” on this track, while Sole Volante will be flying late. As far as long-shots, 15-1 Max Player is worth considering for his rally win in the Withers at Aqueduct in Feb. The trainer, Linda Rice, has a 19% 90 days away win percentage.
Pro-Handicap Analytics 