Day: June 19, 2020

In race 10 on Saturday at Belmont Park in NY is the $1 million Belmont Stakes, run at 1 1/8 on the dirt for three-year olds. The Belmont is the first of the Triple Crown Races this year, after the Kentucky Derby was postponed until September. The field features #8 Tiz the Law at 6-5 on the M/L, who is a winner of his last two, including the G1 Florida Derby in late March and the Holy Bull in early Feb. He will be contested by #1 Tap It To Win at 8-1 from the Mark Casse barn, who also has won his last two. In his most recent start, Tap It To Win nearly set a track record at Belmont in a $66K Allowance at 1 1/16 mi. on June 4, finishing in 1:39 and 3. Another contender is the Sam F. Davis winner, #2 Sole Violate at 9-2, who won a $100K OC at 1 mi. at Gulfstream on June 10. Rounding out the field is #9 Dr. Post at 5-1, who won the $75K Unbridled at 1 1/16 mi. at Gulfstream on Apr. and Withers winner, #3 Max Player, at 15-1, who showed good late kick in that race. The program is projecting the race similar to the order of the M/L, favoring #8 Tiz the Law with a 31.38% total win probability. Second is #1 Tap It To Win at 18.84% win probability, followed by #2 Sole  Volate at 16.67%. As much as Tiz the Law looks strong according to his metrics, he did regress in his last race and thus any of the top three selections could realistically win the Belmont. Tap It To Win has post one and comes into the race in peak form after his near recording-breaking effort on the Belmont track two weeks ago. On the other hand, Sole Volate was also sharp in his last race at Gulfstream in June and has the highest LP estimate in the field at 56.6%, which is a significantly high value. He could very well be the pick to click in this 1 1/8 mi. race if he can maintain form in his second start off the layoff. In sum, it is still Tiz the Law’s race to win, but Tap It To Win could be like a “fish to water” on this track, while Sole Volante will be flying late. As far as long-shots, 15-1 Max Player is worth considering for his rally win in the Withers at Aqueduct in Feb. The trainer, Linda Rice, has a 19% 90 days away win percentage.