There was an excellent opportunity to find value in race 3 at Parx today, an $8K Allowance race at 6f for three-year old fillies and mares. Two horses that were taking most of the money were #3 Peach Alley at 5-2 and #5 Love on Fire at 8-5. These prices were consistent with the horses speed projections, with Peach Allen having a 45.9% SPD win estimate according to the simulation and #5 Love on Fire 38.2%. The horse that was being ignored was the third selection, #4 Coupella, though while having the third highest SPD estimate at only 8.5% had the highest Winning Percentage, adjusted for stakes at 26.8%. On that basis, the horse’s fair value was 3-1, but went off at 11-1. Even according to total win probability, Coupella fair value was about 6-1. Moreover, the horse had the lowest risk with a Coefficient of Variance of just 4%, meaning the horse has been very consistent at winning. With an expected ROI of +75%, Coupella satisfied the criteria of being both an underlay and a horse with a reasonable chance to win as a third selection.
Pro-Handicap Analytics 