Day: June 24, 2020

In race 3 at Gulfstream today, a $12.5K claiming race at 1 mi. for four-year olds and up, the program’s first selection, #3 Creak Brklyn Law at 3-1, won over the odds favorite, #1 Dizzy Gillespie at 4-5. Creak Brklyn Law had a total winning probability of 29%, with a SPD estimate of 32.8% (2nd) and a Winning Percentage of 39.8% (1st). On the basis of WP, the horse’s fair value was about 7-5, yet went off at 3-1. As a first selection, Creak Brklyn Law was a slight underlay with an expected ROI of +16%.

Yesterday there was a good result in race 5 at Parx, a $7.5K claiming race at 1M 70Y for three-year-olds and up, in which the Program had the exacta order correct. The favorite was #1 Synergized at 1-1 with a 26% total win probability, who was a coupled entry with #1a Bridlecrest. The second selection was #6 Cape My Style at 20-1, who had a 16.42% total win probability. The horse was overlooked for having a low Winning Percentage of just 3.2%. However, its potential speed according to the simulation told a different story, in that the horse rated second overall with a 27% final speed estimate versus 29.4% for Synergized. On that basis, Cape My Style’s fair value was below 3-1. Compared to its total win probability, which accounts for the horse’s low winning percentage, the horse’s fair value was 5-1. Either way, Cape My Style was significantly underpriced with an expected ROI of +245%. In the race, Synergized took command down the stretch after having been on the lead, while Cape My Style rallied from off the pace to get second in a photo.