Here is an example of how PHW 4.1 Grey can be used to achieve a successful handicapping outcome in finding the true favorite in a race. In race 3 at Belmont, a $16K claiming race for three-year-olds at 6f, there were essentially two favorites in #1 Wayne’s Footsteps at 3-1 and #6 Cobble Hill at 5-2. The total win probabilities of both were around 20%, with Wayne’s Footsteps having a slightly higher one due to a superior Winning Percentage of 19%. However, upon closer inspection of the PP data, there was a red flag for Wayne’s Footsteps, in that the horse had not run a race for 156 days, with the last time being at Aqueduct, while Cobble Hill finished 1st in his last in a $20K maiden race at Belmont two weeks ago. Consequently, it could be construed that Cobble Hill was in good form, whereas there were questions about Wayne’s Footstep’s form coming off the long layoff and with lackluster works in-between. Moreover, Cobble Hill had the edge in jockey and trainer win percentage at 14% and 26%. As a result, Cobble Hill was clearly the better pick this race, who also had an advantage in LP with a 54% win estimate, which propelled the horse down the stretch in a no-contest win.
Pro-Handicap Analytics 