Day: July 15, 2020

Not every race, of course, is as easy as taking the first selection. Race 4 at Parx today, a $25K maiden race at 1m70 on the turf, required a more nuanced approach to handicap. The odds favorites were #4 The Law of the Land at 6-5 and #1 Abdaa at 5-2. Neither of the horses had high win probabilities, but both had the highest trainer and jockey win percentages (17% and 18%) and (21% and 21%), while The Law of the Land had a 20% win percentage. The horse with the highest win percentage, though, was #2 Rated Special at 24.3%. On this basis, the horse was undervalued compared to its 7-1 odds. Rated Special was only one of three horses to have been successful previously on turf and at the 1m70 distance with a money finish. You can see this in the new features with version 4.1. Moreover, the horse recorded the second highest SPD in the field with a 77 two races back, indicating high potential speed. As I write about in the PHW Strategy Book, horses with the highest win percentages are prime candidates for a bounce-back in form, because they have already proven themselves, even though they may not rate well in simulation. This is often true of such horses after a long lay-off, like Rated Special had with 169 DSLR. In the race, Rated Special broke well from the gate and stalked in fourth place on the back stretch behind three long-shots. The horse was three-wide coming out of the far turn but catapulted himself into the clear, while Law of the Land was gaining just a length back to his outside. #8 Lexitoga also drew near on the far outside heading into the wire, but Rated Special ultimately held off both in the win.

Here is another good result in race 2 at Parx, a $21K claiming race at 1 1/8 mi. on the turf for three-year-olds an up. The program had #9 Alfred as the first selection with a 32% win probability, making it an underlay at 4-1 odds. The odds favorite was #4 Traffic Trouble at 1-1 with a 13.89% win probability, but had jockey and trainer win percentages of 21% and 21%, explaining its low odds. In the race, #7 Hazaspitten’ Image and #9 Alfred were in the first flight out of the gate and stalked from the 3rd and 4th positions on the back stretch. Alfred began making his move around the far turn and took the lead inside the final eighth, while Traffic Trouble surged on the inside. In the end, Alfred dug in and held on for the win. The race shows that even against a superior jockey and trainer, the horse with the best math for his own ability won. Exciting race!