Race 4 at Parx, Wed., July 15

Not every race, of course, is as easy as taking the first selection. Race 4 at Parx today, a $25K maiden race at 1m70 on the turf, required a more nuanced approach to handicap. The odds favorites were #4 The Law of the Land at 6-5 and #1 Abdaa at 5-2. Neither of the horses had high win probabilities, but both had the highest trainer and jockey win percentages (17% and 18%) and (21% and 21%), while The Law of the Land had a 20% win percentage. The horse with the highest win percentage, though, was #2 Rated Special at 24.3%. On this basis, the horse was undervalued compared to its 7-1 odds. Rated Special was only one of three horses to have been successful previously on turf and at the 1m70 distance with a money finish. You can see this in the new features with version 4.1. Moreover, the horse recorded the second highest SPD in the field with a 77 two races back, indicating high potential speed. As I write about in the PHW Strategy Book, horses with the highest win percentages are prime candidates for a bounce-back in form, because they have already proven themselves, even though they may not rate well in simulation. This is often true of such horses after a long lay-off, like Rated Special had with 169 DSLR. In the race, Rated Special broke well from the gate and stalked in fourth place on the back stretch behind three long-shots. The horse was three-wide coming out of the far turn but catapulted himself into the clear, while Law of the Land was gaining just a length back to his outside. #8 Lexitoga also drew near on the far outside heading into the wire, but Rated Special ultimately held off both in the win.