By In the 8th race at Gulfstream today, a $12.5K claiming race at 5f on the turf for three-year-old fillies an up, #3 Heir Ball was the heavy favorite at 4-5 odds. However, its data did not stack up to justify those odds, as it had only a 19.63% total win probability, which was due mostly to its SPD estimate of 43.7%. Two horses that were offering value according to ROI analysis were #4 Merseyside at 10-1 and #5 Charlieanna at 21-1 with positive expected ROIs of 67% and 233%. Merceyside had a slightly higher win probability at 15.22%. It also had the highest E2 and COMP estimates at 50.2% and 36.3% and highest win percentage at 16.9%. With such a short race as a 5f sprint, the handicapper should be focusing on the E1 and E2 estimates, which both horses dominated. In the race, Merseyside went from last to first after a slow start, flying at the end to beat #7 Charlotte the Brit by a neck. Charlotte the Brit was also undervalued, but was less reasonable to take as a 6th selection.
Pro-Handicap Analytics 