By Like the United Nation’s in the 11th, the $85K Wolf Hill Stakes at Monmouth in the 13th— run at 5.5f on the turf for three-year-olds and up—was another “handicappers’ race”. There were three odds favorites at 5-2, including #5 Dubini, #6 Archidust and #9 Shelly Shebaz. The 1st selection according to the model was Shekky Shebas with a 24.12% win probability and a 32% SPD estimate. However, the horse was 133 days since last raced and somewhat risky with a 10.66% Coefficient of Variance. The least risky choice among the favorites was #6 Archidust with a 3.71% CV along with a 19% SPD and a 26.9% LP estimate. Another horse worth considering was #11 American Sailor at 8-1 because of his strong E1 and E2 estimates of 55.3% and 27.4%, showing that he had the right kind of speed for this 5 1/2f sprint. The horse had a number of other things going for him, including moving up in class after winning his last at $50K and fairly strong jockey and trainer winning percentages of 19% and 19%. In the race, American Sailor broke quickest from the gate and opened up a four length lead around the far turn, while Archidust took aim at the leader from the outside upon hitting the stretch. Archidust proved too strong inside the last 1/16 mi. to get the win, with American Sailor finishing a length back in second. Shekky Shebas was 3rd. The $2 exacta paid $87.20.
Pro-Handicap Analytics 