Month: July 2020

After a wild day yesterday at Saratoga, in which a number of long-shots won, the Handicap Wizard had a good score in the 9th race today by hitting the tri-fecta in the $85K Shine Again Stakes with its top three selections. The program had the order #5 Indian Pride (2-1), #9 Blamed (5-2) and #2 Risky Mandate (5-2). However, this handicapper cautions users about playing Saratoga, because of the randomness of results there in races below graded stakes. It’s not just this year, rather Saratoga was like this last year, too, making it one of the toughest tracks to beat.

 

 

In the 8th race at Gulfstream today, a $12.5K claiming race at 5f on the turf for three-year-old fillies an up, #3 Heir Ball was the heavy favorite at 4-5 odds. However, its data did not stack up to justify those odds, as it had only a 19.63% total win probability, which was due mostly to its SPD estimate of 43.7%. Two horses that were offering value according to ROI analysis were #4 Merseyside at 10-1 and #5 Charlieanna at 21-1 with positive expected ROIs of 67% and 233%. Merceyside had a slightly higher win probability at 15.22%. It also had the highest E2 and COMP estimates at 50.2% and 36.3% and highest win percentage at 16.9%. With such a short race as a 5f sprint, the handicapper should be focusing on the E1 and E2 estimates, which both horses dominated. In the race, Merseyside went from last to first after a slow start, flying at the end to beat #7 Charlotte the Brit by a neck.  Charlotte the Brit was also undervalued, but was less reasonable to take as a 6th selection. 

 

Not every race, of course, is as easy as taking the first selection. Race 4 at Parx today, a $25K maiden race at 1m70 on the turf, required a more nuanced approach to handicap. The odds favorites were #4 The Law of the Land at 6-5 and #1 Abdaa at 5-2. Neither of the horses had high win probabilities, but both had the highest trainer and jockey win percentages (17% and 18%) and (21% and 21%), while The Law of the Land had a 20% win percentage. The horse with the highest win percentage, though, was #2 Rated Special at 24.3%. On this basis, the horse was undervalued compared to its 7-1 odds. Rated Special was only one of three horses to have been successful previously on turf and at the 1m70 distance with a money finish. You can see this in the new features with version 4.1. Moreover, the horse recorded the second highest SPD in the field with a 77 two races back, indicating high potential speed. As I write about in the PHW Strategy Book, horses with the highest win percentages are prime candidates for a bounce-back in form, because they have already proven themselves, even though they may not rate well in simulation. This is often true of such horses after a long lay-off, like Rated Special had with 169 DSLR. In the race, Rated Special broke well from the gate and stalked in fourth place on the back stretch behind three long-shots. The horse was three-wide coming out of the far turn but catapulted himself into the clear, while Law of the Land was gaining just a length back to his outside. #8 Lexitoga also drew near on the far outside heading into the wire, but Rated Special ultimately held off both in the win.

Here is another good result in race 2 at Parx, a $21K claiming race at 1 1/8 mi. on the turf for three-year-olds an up. The program had #9 Alfred as the first selection with a 32% win probability, making it an underlay at 4-1 odds. The odds favorite was #4 Traffic Trouble at 1-1 with a 13.89% win probability, but had jockey and trainer win percentages of 21% and 21%, explaining its low odds. In the race, #7 Hazaspitten’ Image and #9 Alfred were in the first flight out of the gate and stalked from the 3rd and 4th positions on the back stretch. Alfred began making his move around the far turn and took the lead inside the final eighth, while Traffic Trouble surged on the inside. In the end, Alfred dug in and held on for the win. The race shows that even against a superior jockey and trainer, the horse with the best math for his own ability won. Exciting race!

 

Here is an excellent result today at Parx in race 7, an $8K allowance race at 6f for three-year-olds. The program’s top three selections were #3 Royalty Salvatore, #8 Emperor John and #6 Old Faithful. That was the final order of the tri-fecta. With a 25% win probability, thanks to a 40.5% SPD and 28.9% and 54.6% E1 and E2 estimates, Royalty Salvatore was an underlay at 5-1 as a first selection, when his fair value was 3-1. The horse paid $12.80 for the win, while the tri-fecta paid $19.20 (at approx. 38-1 combined odds).

In the 9th race, a $8K claiming race at 5 1/2f for three-year-old fillies and mares, there were three favorites at 2-1 odds, including #1 Mess N’ Around, #2 Coupella and #8 Corn on the Cob. The first selection according to the program was #1 Mess N’ Around with a 30.77% win probability,  who also had the highest SPD and LP win estimates at 36.0% and 51.7%. His LP strength was decisive, with Mess N’ Around surging down the stretch in the win. The horse paid $6.80.