Whitney Stakes Preview, Sat., Aug. 1

Here are the projections for today’s $750K G1 Whitney Stakes at Saratoga, run at 1 1/8 mi. on the dirt for four-year-olds and up. The program’s top selection is #5 Tom’s D’etat with a 27% win probability, who is also the M/L and Brisnet favorite in the race. Tom’s D’etat has won his last four races, most recently the G2 Stephen Foster at the same distance at Churchill on Jun 27, when he beat #1 By My Standards by four lengths. Tom’s D’etat has an advantage in SPD with a 43.7% win probability according to the simulation while also having the highest COMP estimate at 48.9%. The second selection is #1 By My Standards with a 22.6% win probability, who like Tom’s D’etat, is coming into the race in good form after recording a career high final speed figure in his last race. Of these two horses, only Tom’s D’etat has experience at Saratoga with a win in the $100K Alydar on Aug 2, 2019 and a fourth place finish in the Woodward on Aug 31, 2019. The third choice is #3 Code of Honor, who, despite not rating as well according to the simulation with a 4.7% SPD estimate, has the highest winning percentage in the field at 35.7%. Code of Honor was a winner in the 1 1/16 mi. Westchester on June 6 at Belmont. Previously, he won the Travers, Dwyer and Fountain of Youth in 2019. Of note, Code of Honor has the highest LP estimate in the field at 36%, but he will need to be quicker earlier on to compete with Tom’s D’etat, who rates well in all phases of the race. Bob Baffert trained #2 Improbable likewise comes into the race in solid form after a win in the 1 1/4 mi. Gold Cup on Jun. 6 at Santa Anita, in which he beat Higher Power by three lengths. Improbable ranks third best by final speed, but is behind the other horses as far as winning percentage at 15.3%. Considering recent form, Tom’s D’etat, By My Standards and Improbable appear to be the strongest contenders in that order, but Code of Honor should not be discounted as the winning-est horse and the one with the highest LP estimate. Additionally, his rider, John Velazquez, has won the Whitney Stakes four times.