Day: August 5, 2020

In the 7th race at Parx, a $12.5K claiming race on the turf for three-year fillies and mares and up, the PHW Turf program had a winner with its 2nd selection, #6 Theodosia at 9-2, with a 39.8% win probability, even though the horse had not run on turf in its last five races. The program’s second selection, #3 Janelle Dreams, came in second at 3-1. Theodosia had the second highest SPD at 35.3% and the highest COMP at 94.3%, which was off the charts. Theodosia paid $11.00 while the $2 exacta (6-1) paid $44.60. The race shows again the advantage of having a pure turf perspective when handicapping. It also shows the fallibility of the lowest-odds favorite without statistical data to support.

The program saw an exacta result in race 7 today at Parx, a $40K maiden race for three-year-olds and up at 1 mi. on the dirt with its top selections of #2 Jerusalem Gates at 7-5 with a 41.7% win probability and #1 Mr. Thrifty at 1-1 with a 32.17% win probability. Both of the horses were dominant in final SPD (48.1% vs. 38.5%) and in COMP (52.5% and 47.1%). The $2 exacta paid $10.60.

Race 5 at Parx saw a nice result today with #6 Awe Mun at 20-1 in a big upset. The two favorites in the race according to both the Program and the live odds were #5 Mr. Classical at 3-1 and #2 Gray Gary at 4-5, who had total win probabilities of 26.38% and 21.46%. Only Mr. Classical was at fair value, while Gray Gary was an overlay. According to the ROI analysis, there were three horses that had positive expected value, including #6 Awe Mun at 20-1 with +151% ROI, #8 King’s Gold at 41-1 with +111% ROI and #5 Surfer Boy George at 19-1 with +61% ROI. The one horse with a reasonable chance of winning among these was #6 Awe Run as a fourth selection with a 12% win probability. Though the horse had only a 2.5% historical win percentage, adjusted for stakes, Awe Mun simulated very well against the horses in the COMP category with 54% value, whose fair value on that basis would have been 1-1. Again, the COMP is a measure of the simulated results of E1, E2 and LP added together, which reflects the cumulative strength of his component metrics against the other horses. As it turns out, Awe Mun ran a big race to finish first, paying $42. Fortunately, the COMP estimate held up in this race, which showed big value for the horse as did the ROI analysis.