By Race 5 at Parx saw a nice result today with #6 Awe Mun at 20-1 in a big upset. The two favorites in the race according to both the Program and the live odds were #5 Mr. Classical at 3-1 and #2 Gray Gary at 4-5, who had total win probabilities of 26.38% and 21.46%. Only Mr. Classical was at fair value, while Gray Gary was an overlay. According to the ROI analysis, there were three horses that had positive expected value, including #6 Awe Mun at 20-1 with +151% ROI, #8 King’s Gold at 41-1 with +111% ROI and #5 Surfer Boy George at 19-1 with +61% ROI. The one horse with a reasonable chance of winning among these was #6 Awe Run as a fourth selection with a 12% win probability. Though the horse had only a 2.5% historical win percentage, adjusted for stakes, Awe Mun simulated very well against the horses in the COMP category with 54% value, whose fair value on that basis would have been 1-1. Again, the COMP is a measure of the simulated results of E1, E2 and LP added together, which reflects the cumulative strength of his component metrics against the other horses. As it turns out, Awe Mun ran a big race to finish first, paying $42. Fortunately, the COMP estimate held up in this race, which showed big value for the horse as did the ROI analysis.
Pro-Handicap Analytics 