By In the 7th race at Parx, a $12.5K claiming race on the turf for three-year fillies and mares and up, the PHW Turf program had a winner with its 2nd selection, #6 Theodosia at 9-2, with a 39.8% win probability, even though the horse had not run on turf in its last five races. The program’s second selection, #3 Janelle Dreams, came in second at 3-1. Theodosia had the second highest SPD at 35.3% and the highest COMP at 94.3%, which was off the charts. Theodosia paid $11.00 while the $2 exacta (6-1) paid $44.60. The race shows again the advantage of having a pure turf perspective when handicapping. It also shows the fallibility of the lowest-odds favorite without statistical data to support.
Pro-Handicap Analytics 