Day: August 9, 2020

In keeping with the goal of smarter handicapping, we made a change to the FIT2 equation, which was part of the major additions in the PHW 4.1 Update. The FIT2 Equation is the 2nd Win Fitness Test, which we have made more selective by adding logical rules based on the horses’ meeting superior pre-defined limits in their metrics. The metrics are SPD and WP together, E1 and E2 together, LP and COMP. Besides setting universal performance limits, the user can modify the qualifiers by sprint or route distances. The result is a filter that assigns checks to horses with only the highest statistical values, whose data dominance often point to actual winning performances by the horses.

To show an example, here are the results of the 8th race from Gulfstream yesterday, Thurs., Aug 6. The program’s first and second selections (according to Total Win Probability) were #8 Thissmytime at 2-1 and #1 Bimini at 8-5. These were also the horses that received checks in the FIT2 category, but for different reasons. #8 Thissmytime was the most winning horse in the field (highest WP at 29.7%) and had the second highest SPD value, while #1 Bimini had the highest LP estimate at 68.1%, which is an exceptionally high value pointing to significant strength in the final stretch. In this particular race, Thissmytime won, proving her class. Besides the program correctly predicting the order of the exacta with TOP, it also highlighted in FIT2 the two strongest contenders from their statistical superiority in certain categories which “fit” a formula for winning.

The 4.1 Grey program had winners with its first selections in all three of the graded stakes races on dirt at Saratoga today. The first was in the 7th in the $300K G1 Balrina at 7f, in which #1 Serengetti Empress won at 3-1. The second was in the 10th in the $300K G1 Longines Test stakes at 7f for three-year-old fillies, where the program had #5 Gamine first at 1-5. The third was in the 11th in the $1,000,000 Travers Stakes with #6 Tiz the Law at 1-2.

7th

10th

11th

The 4.0 Turf Program had one winner with its first selection and one winner with its second selection in the two graded stakes turf races at Gulfstream today. In the $100K Martha Washington in the 9th, run at 1 mi. on the turf for three-year olds fillies, the program favored #6 Lucky Polly with a 30.96% total win probability, who won at 4-1. This was tougher than it looks, in that the horse had to beat out two horses with lower odds in #Yesterdayoncemore (IRE) at 9-5 and #7 Tournesol at 7-2 and one at equal odds in #5 R Calli Kim at 4-1. Also remarkable is that Lucky Polly’s sole lifetime win was seven months ago in her maiden at $50K on Jan. 26 at GP, yet the program recognized the horse’s strength in SPD from the simulation with a 50% win probability and in WP at 22.7%.

In the 11 the race—the $100K Not Surprising Stakes—run at #1 mi on the turf for three-year olds, the program had #9 Givemetwenty at 9-5 as its second selection, who dueled with the program’s 1st choice, #5 Monteforte at 3-1, down the stretch before breaking away inside the last sixteenth. Givemetwenty had the strongest LP estimate at 46.5%, which is a FIT2 qualfier.

In the 12th race, the program’s second selection in #9 Hero Up won at 5-1 out of a twelve horse field. This was a competitive race, in that only #2 Vincitore had a higher total win probability than 20% at 7-5. Hero Up was next with a  18.35% win probability.

Race 9

Race 11

Race 12