By The 4.0 Turf Program had one winner with its first selection and one winner with its second selection in the two graded stakes turf races at Gulfstream today. In the $100K Martha Washington in the 9th, run at 1 mi. on the turf for three-year olds fillies, the program favored #6 Lucky Polly with a 30.96% total win probability, who won at 4-1. This was tougher than it looks, in that the horse had to beat out two horses with lower odds in #Yesterdayoncemore (IRE) at 9-5 and #7 Tournesol at 7-2 and one at equal odds in #5 R Calli Kim at 4-1. Also remarkable is that Lucky Polly’s sole lifetime win was seven months ago in her maiden at $50K on Jan. 26 at GP, yet the program recognized the horse’s strength in SPD from the simulation with a 50% win probability and in WP at 22.7%.
In the 11 the race—the $100K Not Surprising Stakes—run at #1 mi on the turf for three-year olds, the program had #9 Givemetwenty at 9-5 as its second selection, who dueled with the program’s 1st choice, #5 Monteforte at 3-1, down the stretch before breaking away inside the last sixteenth. Givemetwenty had the strongest LP estimate at 46.5%, which is a FIT2 qualfier.
In the 12th race, the program’s second selection in #9 Hero Up won at 5-1 out of a twelve horse field. This was a competitive race, in that only #2 Vincitore had a higher total win probability than 20% at 7-5. Hero Up was next with a 18.35% win probability.
Race 9
Race 11
Race 12
Pro-Handicap Analytics 