Day: August 22, 2020

One of the best results today came in the 8th race a Saratoga, a $65K allowance race run at 5 1/2f on the turf for three-year olds. The program had #4 Freewheeler as it’s top selection with a 32.66% total win probability, who was also the odds favorite at 4-5. The horse ranked first in SPD with a 46.1% win estimate also first in WP% at 33.1.%. For this the horse earned itself a FIT2 checkmark, one of the new features in Version 4.1. The next two selections were #9 Crackshot at 7-2 versus a win probability of 22.74% and #8 Noble Emotion at 10-1 versus a win probability of 14.90%. Noble Emotion was well suited to this short distance with favorable E1 and E2 win estimates of 33.3% and 19.95%, which on that basis put his fair value at 5-2 (compared to odds of 10-1!). In the race, Noble Emotion proved the best horse, going wire-to-wire while #4 Freewheeler came in second by a length. The selections 9-4 follow a successful exacta strategy with the program of boxing the odds favorite with the top two model selections, when they are not the favorite. Two $1 boxed exacta wagers with 4-8 and 4-9 for a cost of $4.00 paid $27.50. The strategy works because of the propensity of the odds favorite to win or place around 50% of the time or better. When this happens, the Handicap Wizard needs to be right about only one of its top two selections after the favorite, like it was in this race with a 10-1 horse winning at long odds.

The program had the superfecta with its top four selections in race 3rd at Saratoga today—the $85K Skidmore takes at 5 1/2f on the turf for two-year-olds. Heavily favored in the odds, #6 Golden Pal won at 3-5 followed by #5 Fauci at 3-1, then #4 Sky’s Not Falling at 5-1 and #1 Sunny Isle Beach at 10-1. The $0.10 superfecta paid $0.81. Even though it was a predictable result according to the odds, this race validates the Handicap Wizard quantitative approach as an accurate ordering system independent of the odds, while having the same order of the odds.