The 4.1 Grey program had the winner with its top selection in the $500K Alabama in the 9th at Saratoga today, run at 1 1/4 mi. on the dirt for three-year old fillies. With a total win probability of 38.9%, thanks to a 55.3% SPD estimate and a 30.4% winning percentage, #5 Swiss Skydiver at 1-1 went wire-to-wire in the win. #4 Bonny South, who had the second highest winning percentage at 18.9%, finished second at 10-1. Swiss Skydiver paid $4.40.
There was a nice result in race 1 at Gulfstream today, run at 1 1/6 mi. on the turf for four-year olds. The Turf Program’s second selection in #5 Mustang Cat was an underlay and the most undervalued horse at 10-1 versus a total win probability of 17.16%, with an expected ROI of +89%. The horse was dominant in E1 and E2 with winning estimates of 59.4% and 45.5% and also had the highest COMP at 49%, yet the money line dismissed him at 15-1. In the race, Mustang Cat went wire to wire, holding off a late surge by the favorite #4 Keep Quiet at 7-5. Mustang Cat paid $22.00 for the win.
The Turf Program had the winner with its first selection in the race 5 at Saratoga today—the $100K Perfect String Stakes—run at 1 1/16 mi. on the turf for fillies and mares four-years-old and up. In a competitive field, the program favored #5 Feel Glorious (GB) with a 25.22% total win probability, who was an underlay at 5-1. Feel Glorious was 1st in SPD and LP with 32.7% and 39.3% according to the simulation and had the 2nd highest Winning Percentage by a hair at 28.7%. Feel Glorious surged late down the stretch to edge out #6 Chaleur at 4-1 by half a length. In doing so, the horse beat out four other horses with lower odds, including #4 Altea at 9-5 and #1 Cafe Americano at 5-2. Feel Glorious paid $13.60 for the win.
There was a nice result today in race 6 at Parx, a $7.5K allowance race at 1m70 on the dirt for three-year-old fillies and mares. The program’s first selection was #3 Colloquium at 6-1, who had a total winning probability of 27.74%. The horse received a check in FIT2 for having the highest Winning Percentage at 27.2% along with the second highest SPD winning estimate of 24.1%. Colloquium was an ideal choice as a first selection underlay, having an expected ROI of +94%. In the race, Colloquium won a duel against #5 Sweet Home down the stretch to take the victory.
In keeping with the goal of smarter handicapping, we made a change to the FIT2 equation, which was part of the major additions in the PHW 4.1 Update. The FIT2 Equation is the 2nd Win Fitness Test, which we have made more selective by adding logical rules based on the horses’ meeting superior pre-defined limits in their metrics. The metrics are SPD and WP together, E1 and E2 together, LP and COMP. Besides setting universal performance limits, the user can modify the qualifiers by sprint or route distances. The result is a filter that assigns checks to horses with only the highest statistical values, whose data dominance often point to actual winning performances by the horses.
To show an example, here are the results of the 8th race from Gulfstream yesterday, Thurs., Aug 6. The program’s first and second selections (according to Total Win Probability) were #8 Thissmytime at 2-1 and #1 Bimini at 8-5. These were also the horses that received checks in the FIT2 category, but for different reasons. #8 Thissmytime was the most winning horse in the field (highest WP at 29.7%) and had the second highest SPD value, while #1 Bimini had the highest LP estimate at 68.1%, which is an exceptionally high value pointing to significant strength in the final stretch. In this particular race, Thissmytime won, proving her class. Besides the program correctly predicting the order of the exacta with TOP, it also highlighted in FIT2 the two strongest contenders from their statistical superiority in certain categories which “fit” a formula for winning.
Pro-Handicap Analytics 