Month: September 2020

Besides a number of graded stakes turf races taking place at Kentucky Downs today, there were several graded stakes races north of the border at Woodbine, the premier being the $1 mi. Queen’s Plate Stakes for three-year-olds at 1 1/4 mi. on the main track. The program’s first selection was #10 Curlin’s Voyage with a win probability of 20.81%, who was also the odd’s favorite at 5-2. That made him a slight overlay. The program’s second choice was #13 Mighty Heart, who had a 12.33% win probability. The horse had the 2nd highest final speed estimate at 19.0%, while Curlin’s Voyage was 1st at 32.7%. Even though Mighty Heart’s final speed projection was high, the horse was at a discount at 13-1. The reason for its low price in terms of expectations was that it had only a 5.9% win percentage adjusted for stakes over four races. In the race, #13 Mighty Heart showed he was all heart, winning by eight lengths going away. The horse paid $28.50 for the win. This race shows again the success of the HW philosophy, which is selecting horses with reasonable chances to win, who also are undervalued according to the program. Here Mighty Heart was valued at 4-1 by final speed in the simulation but was offered at odds of 13-1.

In a thrilling finish, Baffert trained #18 Authentic at 8-1 held off the favorite, #17 Tiz the Law at 3-5 to win the Kentucky Derby in an upset. This was the reverse order of Program 4.1’s projections, which had Tiz the Law first and Authentic second. Of note, Authentic had a higher COMP estimate at 36.1% versus 31% for Tiz the Law, indicating that at a component level (simulated E1, E2 and LP results combined) Authentic projected slightly stronger. Authentic paid $18.80 for the win, while the $2 exacta paid $41.00. Earlier, Baffert lost his other horse in the field, #10 Thousand Words, who had reared up and fell about forty minutes before the race, causing his automatic scratch. Unfortunately, the optimism for NY Traffic did not pan out. Whether due to injury or not, the horse weakened at the quarter pole after running first and second off the pace until that point.

The program had the winner with its first selection in the Pat’s Day Mile at Churchill with #9 Rushie at 5-2. The horse had the highest winning speed estimate at 38.5% and the second highest WP at 23.2%. For ranking in the two top in both SPD and WP, Rushie received a FIT2 checkmark, again, one of the new and customized features of PHW 4.1 Grey. The other horse to receive a FIT2 checkmark was #8 Sonnenman at 25-1, who had a superior LP at 47.1%. This proved the difference down the stretch, with Sonnenman being able to catch all of the other horses on the outside to come up for second. Rushie paid $7.80, while the $2 exacta 9-8 paid a whopping $146.00.

The program had a nice result in the 7th today a Churchill, a $62.5K optional claiming race at 1 1/16 mi. on the dirt for three-year-olds and up. Out of a twelve horse field, the top selection was #9 Aurelias Maximus at 4-1 versus a total win probability of 17.66%, putting it just below fair value. The horse had the highest SPD estimate from the simulation at 41.3%, but its WP% was low at 4.7%, meaning it had not won against the likes of this competition before. Still, the horse was coming into the race after a career best performance and did not disappoint in this race, winning it down the stretch. The program’s 3rd selection in #10 Bodexpress came in 2nd. Aurelias Maximus paid $10.00 and the $2 exacta paid $46.60. The program would have had the tri-fecta among its top three selections, if not for Mr. Quality at 45-1 coming in 3rd, whose WP% was only 2.1%.

Here are the projections for the $3 mil. Kentucky Derby at Churchill on Saturday, run at 1 1/4 mi. on the dirt for three-year-olds. The field features #17 Tiz the Law at 3-5 on the M/L, who has won his last four races, three of which were G1s, including the Travers, the Belmont and the Florida Derby. Vying against him is Baffert trained, #18 Authentic, winner of the G1 Haskell, the G2 San Felipe and the G3 Sham, as well as Santa Anita Derby winner, #16 Honor A.P., and Haskell runner-up, #15 NY Traffic. Tiz the Law is sitting in the driver’s seat in this race, having the highest total winning probability at 31.68% and a 51.6% winning SPD estimate according to the simulation. With a fair value then around 2-1, Tiz the Law would be expensive according to the M/L price of 3-5 in this seventeen horse field, which is one less after the scratch of #6 King Guillermo yesterday due to fever. Given the long distance of the race, many of the horses will be tiring down the stretch, except those with strong LP estimates, who are Tiz the Law at 24.6%, Honor A.P. at 24.5% and NY Traffic 23.7%. The only horse of the three offering value according to this metric is NY Traffic at 20-1 on the M/L, who is this handicapper’s pick to win. My choice has to do with the progression of the horse from his 2nd place finish in the G3 Matt Winn at Churchill in late May to his very close 2nd place finish in the Haskell in mid July, when he nearly caught Authentic at the wire while recording a career best SPD of 107. The increase from 95 to 107 in the span of two months suggests the horse has more upside in the Kentucky Derby, where he has had nearly the same amount of rest this time around. His owner, John Fanelli, indicated as much in an interview from Sept. 2, saying his horse has continued to improve in training. What is remarkable about NY Traffic is that he is a freak-of-nature, in that the horse has no great pedigree as a son of Cross Traffic on the sire-side and of Mamie Reilly on the dam-side. With Tiz the Law coming off a career best 115 SPD just a month ago, the possibility for a regression by him off the short rest is real. Therefore, I am looking for NY Traffic to upset Tiz the Law, with Honor A.P. finishing 3rd. The program’s selections are Tiz the Law, Authentic, Honor A.P. and Max Player. After clicking on the image, click on the link on the bottom right to see in full resolution.