The Turf Program saw a nice result today in the 7th at Churchill, a $100K allowance race at 1 1/8 mi. on the turf for fillies and mares three-year-olds and up. In a competitive race with twelve horses and none receiving a win probability higher than 20%, #6 Flabbergasted was the first selection at 3-1 with a total win probability of 17.23%., who was the second winning-est horse at 19.2% WP after #7 I Hear You at 20.4%. I Hear You was the odds favorite at 2-1. That is how the order went, with Flabbergasted going wire-to-wire. I Hear You finished a length back second. This is another race where the exacta strategy of boxing the odds favorite with the top two program selections worked. Flabbergasted paid $8.60, while the $2 exacta paid $28.60.
Here are the projections for the $3 mil. Kentucky Derby at Churchill on Saturday, run at 1 1/4 mi. on the dirt for three-year-olds. The field features #17 Tiz the Law at 3-5 on the M/L, who has won his last four races, three of which were G1s, including the Travers, the Belmont and the Florida Derby. Vying against him is Baffert trained, #18 Authentic, winner of the G1 Haskell, the G2 San Felipe and the G3 Sham, as well as Santa Anita Derby winner, #16 Honor A.P., and Haskell runner-up, #15 NY Traffic. Tiz the Law is sitting in the driver’s seat in this race, having the highest total winning probability at 31.68% and a 51.6% winning SPD estimate according to the simulation. With a fair value then around 2-1, Tiz the Law would be expensive according to the M/L price of 3-5 in this seventeen horse field, which is one less after the scratch of #6 King Guillermo yesterday due to fever. Given the long distance of the race, many of the horses will be tiring down the stretch, except those with strong LP estimates, who are Tiz the Law at 24.6%, Honor A.P. at 24.5% and NY Traffic 23.7%. The only horse of the three offering value according to this metric is NY Traffic at 20-1 on the M/L, who is this handicapper’s pick to win. My choice has to do with the significant progression of the horse from his 2nd place finish in the G3 Matt Winn at Churchill in late May to his very close 2nd place finish in the Haskell in mid July, when he nearly caught Authentic at the wire while recording a career best SPD of 107. The increase from 95 to 107 in the span of two months suggests the horse has more upside in the Kentucky Derby, where he has had nearly the same amount of rest this time around. His owner, John Fanelli, indicated as much in an interview from Sept. 2, saying his horse has continued to improve in training. What is remarkable about NY Traffic is that he is a freak-of-nature, in that the horse has no great pedigree as a son of Cross Traffic on the sire-side and of Mamie Reilly on the dam-side. With Tiz the Law coming off a career best 115 SPD just a month ago, the possibility for a regression by him off the short rest is real. Therefore, I am looking for NY Traffic to upset Tiz the Law, with Honor A.P. finishing 3rd. The program’s selections are Tiz the Law, Authentic, Honor A.P. and Max Player. After clicking on the image, click on the link on the bottom right to see in full resolution.
Pro-Handicap Analytics 